Steel Yourself—Here’s a GREAT SPAC

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SPACs have gone through an entire market cycle in about 3 months.

The CNBC SPAC 50 index began the year on a tear, peaked out in mid February, based for two months, and, in the last few days, seem to be breaking out again.

Source: CNBC.com

Does that mean its time to look for the next great electric vehicle SPAC?

Uh, no.  I am going in a different direction on this one.

Let me introduce you to one of the oldest-newest public companies – Algoma Steel.  Algoma is going public (again) through a SPAC with Legato Merger Corp (LEGO – NASDAQ).

Once the merger is complete Algoma will be one of the cheapest steel plays out there.  And because it is a SPAC, there is a very interesting way to play the upside.

I will fill in the details shortly.  But first, let’s recap what has been going on in the steel market.

Steel prices have been going up like crazy this year.  Hot-rolled-coiled steel (HRC) prices in the U.S have topped $1,600 per tonne.  That is more than double what the 5-year average.

Source: BMO Capital Markets

Last week BMO Capital Markets raised their price forecast for U.S HRC steel for 2021 and 2022.

Overall, we maintain our view that prices are likely to remain well above historical averages for the remainder of 2021 and 2022. While we still assume prices will decline somewhat in 2H’21, our “higher-for-longer” view continues to push higher-for-longer.

Yet steel stocks are taking a breather.  After big moves over the first 4 months of the year, since mid-May the steelmakers have tread water.

Source: Stockcharts.com

I think what we’re seeing is the typical commodity response – as prices go up, multiples come down.  The old wisdom is to buy commodity stocks when multiples are high and sell when they are low.

That is the right thing to do – most of the time.  But BMO thinks the stocks are way underperforming their underlying businesses.

Excessive multiple compression, exceptionally high free cashflow yields, and limited participation in recent underlying pricing gains each suggest most equities continue to lag this pricing cycle.

The stocks in BMO’s coverage universe are trading at about a 4x EBITDA multiple and change.

Source: BMO Capital Markets

What’s my take?  At 4x EBITDA, with steel way, way above its long-term trend line, I think a lot of the meat is already off the bone.

However, if you gave me a multiple that is half that, well I would get interested.

Enter the SPAC Legato Merger Corp and their recent merger partner – Algoma Steel.

Legato is an Eric Rosenfeld SPAC – he was one of the principles of Long-Term Capital Management – the hedge fund that almost cratered the world way back in 1998.

Legato completed its IPO back in January.  While some SPACs take their time to find a merger candidate (it can often be 2+ years), Legato did not.  Two weeks ago, Legato signed an agreement to merge with Algoma Steel.

Yes, that Algoma Steel.  Algoma is a 100-year-old company (117 years in fact).  It has been a Canadian institution with operations on the shores of Lake Superior in Sault St. Marie for longer than any of us have been alive.

Not surprisingly, Algoma has gone through tough times.  Algoma had to declare bankruptcy in 2015.

When Algoma exited bankruptcy 3 years later, in 2018, it emerged a much stronger company. 

Algoma did not lay off a single employee during its time in bankruptcy, instead hiring over 300 new ones – an impressive fact.  But they were able to get employee costs under control. 

Through the bankruptcy process they were bel to cap their pension and health care obligations which had hung around their neck like an albatross, replacing them with capped payments tied to profitability and cash flow.

With the new structure Algoma can forecast cash flow and plan growth.   

Algoma raised capital coming out of bankruptcy, $300 million, and used it to modernize the business. 

Algoma now operates the only facility in Canada capable of converting liquid steel directly into steel coils.

As a Canadian institution and large employer, Algoma has also been helped by the Federal government.  The Feds contributed $150 million in grants in 2019 towards improving productivity and implementing new technologies.

Make no mistake, Algoma may be an old company, but this is not some old and poorly run steel operation.

Algoma operates a high-tech facility that already has best in class costs.  In fact, Algoma’s operation is right at the bottom of the cost curve for North American producers.

Source: Legato/Algoma Merger Presentation

But Algoma is only getting started.

Algoma plans to use the $300+ million of cash from the merger – this includes $200+ million from the SPAC and another $100 million from a PIPE investment which I have heard is very well subscribed for – to convert their line from a high-emission blast furnace mill to a low emission EAF mill.

Source: Legato/Algoma Merger Presentation

The EAF mill uses scrap metal instead of iron ore and coking coal.  As a result, the conversion will make Algoma one of the lowest carbon emission steel producers in the world.

But this is about more that just carbon.  The mill will also increase capacity by 30% and reduce costs – adding $150 million in annual EBITDA when it is completed in 2024.

Most important, EAF steelmakers (Nucor (NUE – NYSE) being the prime example, trade at a healthy premium to their blast-furnace brethren.

Source: Legato/Algoma Merger Presentation

Algoma currently sits with a cash position of $320 million (including the SPAC and PIPE cash) and debt of $485 million.  That net debt position of $165 million means Algoma is far from being levered bet.

The terms of the SPAC merger include layers of earnout shares for the existing Algoma owners.  Those earnouts are all based on this year’s numbers – if Algoma hits $900 million of EBITDA this year the full earnout will be achieved.

With steel prices at current levels that seems a given.  Assuming a full earnout there will be 153 million Algoma shares outstanding when it is said and done.  At $10 a share that is a $1.5 billion market cap.

Tag on the next debt and you are looking at an enterprise value of a little under $1.7 billion.

Here is where I become interested.  A $1.7 billion enterprise value on a stock that expects to do $900 million of EBITDA – that is less than 2x EBITDA.

The BMO steelmaker universe is trading at over double that.

There is no reason for Algoma to trade at half of what the rest of the steelmakers trade at.  If anything, they are in a better position than many of their peers – their pensions are dealt with, their debt is manageable, they have cash to expand and they operate in Canada with the lower dollar.

It sounds great so far, but here is where I become really interested. 

Because Algoma is merging with a SPAC, the SPAC shares trade as units – shares plus warrants.  Those warrants also trade separately (LEGOW – NASDAQ).

Legato warrants are typical for a SPAC – they convert at $11.50 and are redeemable for 5-years after the merger is finalized.

A re-rating of Algoma to the average peer is enough to make those warrants very attractive.  The warrants have recently climbed to $1.60, but even at that price, if Algoma stock goes to $20, they are more than a 5-bagger. 

I think that will begin to happen once the merger closes and brokerages begin to pick up coverage. 

Notice that BMO does not have Algoma on their coverage list.  Of course not!  This was a private company until 2-weeks ago.  Brokerages won’t initiate coverage until the merger is a done deal.

But when that happens, I have to think the price targets will be $20+.

At that point, the stock will begin to re-rate.  It’s just simple math.

EDITORS NOTERritual Superfoods (RSF-CSE) is ramping up distribution and sales of its products.  An independent research service—Market Radius—is hosting Rritual CEO David Kerbel next Wednesday, right after market at 115 pm Pacific, 415 pm Eastern.  Get the latest from Kerbel—use this link to access the webinar:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3916236960643/WN_wTyVa0HgRNauDbRJThtLGQ

THE ONLY SHIPPING TRADE I WANT TO MAKE THIS YEAR ZIM INTEGRATED SHIPPING (ZIM – NYSE) COVERED CALL / OPTION PLAY

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Me and the Market both hate shipping stocks. You can tell that by the crazy low multiple the sector gets. Why the hate? Because we regularly see news releases of management teams either buying options in their own deals or worse openly buying or selling ships from their own personal net worth back and forth to the public company. And after any good year they just spend that money on buying more ships (increasing supply).

Obviously they are not ALL like that, but certainly enough that in the junior and mid tier management teams, I generally stay away; good markets and bad. BUT…shipping rates are now INSANE. And I expect them to stay quite strong through the rest of 2021.

Putting these two themes together … well, that may explain why my #1 trade in shipping stocks is in a company that owns no ships. And even then I’m doing a covered call, though you have to own the stock for that.

Even if you don’t do calls/puts/options, I think you will find this a very interesting weekend read.

It will also give you an idea of the thinking and research my team puts into our portfolio stock picks (though we rarely do options plays; there is one or two a year). You can try out our service HERE

And here is a snapshot of where my 2021 portfolio sits today:

 

QUICK FACTS

Trading Symbols:                                     ZIM

Share Price Today:                                   $41

Shares Outstanding:                                110 million

Market Capitalization:                              $4.9 billion

Net Debt:                                                  $915 million

Enterprise Value:                                     $5.8 billion

 

POSITIVES

– Very levered to containership market

– Containership market is currently on fire – 10+ year highs

– earned $5+ EPS in Q1

– Management dedicated to returning cash to shareholders

– Covered call strategy buffers downside and gives nice 20% return

 

NEGATIVES

– Asset light model means they own no ships

– Focus is short-term spot deals rather than long-term charters

– Have been chartering-in ships at high rates over last few months

– When cycle turns ZIM will be hit hard

The Investment Thesis

I am taking a covered call position in ZIM International Shipping (ZIM – NYSE). There are two pieces here to understand: 1. the shipping angle and 2. the covered call angle.

Of the two, the covered call matters most.

First, what is a covered call? It means I am buying shares of ZIM and selling calls on my shares. The calls “cover” the upside – think of it as selling the upside in advance.  Why? Because they will pay me for it! Handsomely.

Here are the numbers. I’m buying ZIM shares at $42 and immediately selling the October 15, 2021 calls with a $40 strike for $8.  For every 100 shares of ZIM I buy, I write one call contract (each contract covers 100 shares).

If ZIM is $40 or above on October 15th, the person who has the ‘option’ to take my shares for $40 will do so. It doesn’t matter if ZIM is still $42 or $100, they get to buy my shares at $40.

If ZIM shares are trading below $40, I keep the shares. And whatever losses I have on them. BUT, I still keep the $8.00 I received when I sold the covered calls. But there is more.

ZIM just announced a special dividend of $2 per share to be paid on September 15th. Because I own the shares, and I will still hold them in September, I will get that dividend. But I will not have to pay that dividend on the calls I sell. It’s mine. The wife and I will go out for dinner on September 16th. I’ll make the reservation now, under ‘ZIM.’

My “cash return” – ie. the cash I get from the trade, will be $8 from selling the calls and $2 from the dividend on the shares. $10 all-in. In order for me to lose money on the trade, ZIM shares would have to go down $10 from where I bought them – nearly 24% – to $32. At that point, I lost $10 on the shares I bought, which is perfectly offset by the $8 call option premium I received and the $2 special dividend.

If ZIM shares go up, I keep the $8 call option premium AND the $2 special dividend, but I have to hand over the shares for $2 less than I paid for them (I sold someone the $40 call option, after all). That nets me a return of $8, on a $42 stock – or 19%. 

Taking a step back, it looks pretty attractive to me. If ZIM is flat or up from now until October, I make 19%. If ZIM is between $32 to $40, I make less, but still something. It is only if ZIM drops below $32 – a 24% drop, that I start to lose.

In a nutshell I am betting that ZIM does not collapse between now and October 15th. I picked October 15 because the shipping sector is usually in full force then—just finishing the back-to-school deliveries and switching into Christmas present transport.

How likely is that? I think it is a good bet. Here is why.

The Containership Market

We have seen a huge move in the containership market. Rates to ship cargo across the ocean have gone through the roof.

The pandemic has backed up ports and with retailers trying to restock post-pandemic.  Consumers are getting out of the house and going on a spending spree.

Everything I read says this is not ending any time soon. Even the bears admit it does not improve until next year.

Below are 1-year Harpex index that measures container rates. They have gone up – a lot!

Source: Harpex

But its more than a short-term blip. Longer-term charters for container ships are extremely strong. The 24-month charters are only 10-15% below the 12 month charters – this is far higher than the 10-year average..

Source: Contex

Here’s something else– retail inventory to sales ratio…retailers have REALLY low inventories—and they are not going up—despite the desperate race to buy anything and everything they can from China right now. GREAT chart here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILIRSA

Now, charterers are booking 3-year and 4-year charters on a Type 6,500 ship at $45,000/day. While that is lower than the 1-year $56,000 rate, it is not a lot lower. A few years ago they would have been booking $12k-$15k.

Meanwhile the supply side is only beginning to perk up. Up until the last couple of months containerships new build orders were down to 10+ year lows.  

Source: Bloomberg

My take is that while the recent strength in rates may not continue at the extreme that it has, it is very unlikely to come down much.

And that is really the trade here. I do not need ZIM to go to the moon – just to stay at these levels.

Zim Integrated Shipping

ZIM is not your typical containership company.

For one, they do not own any ships.

Wait, what?

ZIM owns no ships. They charter in ships from other owners on long-term charters and then book those ships back out on the spot market for higher rates.

ZIM is like the inverse of a financial company. They are borrowing long and lending short. Taking long-term (1-4 year) contracts on ships, and then contracting them out on short (<12 month) charters.

About half of ZIM’s vessels are chartered out for less than a year.

This is, to say the least, a unique strategy. It was devised by CEO Eli Glickman when he came to the company in 2017.

At the time ZIM was heavily in debt and the containership market was in a deep trough.

Glickman decided that ZIM was going to take a new approach to the business – an asset light model with no ships.

The benefit is flexibility. When Covid hit ZIM pared back its fleet to 50 ships. Now with the market hopping, ZIM operates 110 ships. They will have 120 to 130 in short order.

It is also the perfect strategy for this environment. They are reaping the benefits on ships they chartered in at far lower rates.

No surprise, ZIM’s first quarter results were strong. 

Revenue increased $900 million. EBITDA increased $720 million.  ZIM did a great job of converting incremental revenue into cash. They generated $777 million of operating cash in Q1.

Source: ZIM First Quarter Results

Earnings per share came in at $5.35. This is well ahead of consensus estimates of $4.70.

ZIM is well-positioned geographically. About half their ships are trans-Pacific – meaning they run that Asia to North America route. This route is reaping the benefit of US imports as well as the port congestion on the West Coast.

Would ZIM try to take advantage of the boost in long-term rates? That seems unlikely. CFO Xavier Destriau said on the Q1 call that “we were not so keen on [that]. We are quite pleased to limit contracts to 12 months as we are still optimistic on the U.S. market.”

In fact, ZIM is doing the opposite. They are fixing ships now at what seems to be quite high rates, presumably because they believe the market is only going to get stronger.

While I personally find this a bit scary (one reason to not own the shares), you can only interpret it as a very bullish move. Taking in long-term charters now will be a death blow if rates fall back to levels of the last decade.

ZIM simply does not think that will happen. In fact, Glickman told TradeWinds he believes three-year charters may even be too short.

Glickman has said that the low orderbook and the impact of new environmental legislation are going to impact the business well beyond the post-pandemic restocking. He thinks the squeeze will continue into 2023 and beyond.

Not surprisingly, the bible of the industry, TradeWinds reported that ZIM has fixed several containerships for periods of up to four years.

The Special Dividend—Is ANOTHER ONE Coming?

The other piece of ZIMs strategy, which fits with this trade, is that ZIM plans to pay their winnings back to shareholders.

Beginning in 2022 ZIM will be paying out a 30-50% of net income annual dividend.  That could be as much at $7-$8 per share.

But more important for this trade – they will be paying a $2 special dividend on September 15th.

I think it’s highly likely that there is ANOTHER special dividend before my covered call expires—the industry is that profitable right now.

Analysts are predicting ZIM will earn $13.48 this year. That puts the shares at a little over 3x earnings.

ZIM raised guidance on the first quarter call. They now expect EBITDA between $2.5 billion and $2.8 billion for the year.

The enterprise value of the stock sits at $5.8 billion. The stock is trading at ~2x EBITDA. Think back to my intro—this sector is always cheap. That’s because the Street doesn’t trust these teams.

Conclusion

You could look at the valuation and say – if it is that cheap, why not just buy the shares? 

I’ll suggest a couple of reasons.

First, I do not trust the containership market. Yes, rates are sky high right now but the shipping market can change on a dime.

I will admit, it is very interesting to see 3- and 4-year charters at the level they are at. The market is saying that this is more than a short-term post-pandemic squeeze.

But I am no true believer – yet.

Second, ZIM is going to get killed on the way down. All containerships will, but ZIM more than most. 

Remember, this is a shipping company without ships. It is a business model that is geared to leverage spot exposure as much as they can.

Shippers are valued on earnings on the way up and net asset value on the way down. ZIM has no assets.

The other side of that coin is that if rates stay high, it will look great for earnings now, but new charters become a problem. I already pointed out that they are chartering in some new ships at high rates. Those could turn into albatrosses in the backside of this.

Finally, there is the share overhang. Through past restructurings, former lenders have been handed shares.

These include Deutsche Bank, with 15.7 million shares and Danaos, with 10.2 million shares.

We just saw Danaos file to unload some of their shares. That won’t be the last time. But… that special dividend just about guarantees there will be no more unloaded until after October.

Put all these concerns together and it is just easier to not swing for the fence. A 19% return over 5-months annualizes to over 40%. That is pretty darn good. I also think there is a strong possibility of a second special dividend before my covered call expires.

With a market that still feels awfully frothy to me, I will take it, along with the lower risk, and leave the big payoff / big downside alternative.

PS—most of my stocks/trades are much more junior than this. But I have followed shipping for a decade, and this is one of the lowest risk/highest reward trades I’ve seen in this sector in a long time.

I’ve got a couple new stocks coming to subscribers in the next week, and re-iterating one very high conviction stock in the DE-CARBONIZATION industry.

Sign up for a risk free trial of InvestingWhisperer right HERE

THE BEST OIL TEAM IN CANADA IN THE BEST OIL PLAY IN CANADA

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I bought into Headwater Exploration (HWX – TSX) about last May – during the darkest days of the oil market.  Headwater was a bet on management – Neil Roszell and his team–the same guys who, over the last decade, brought us Raging River, Wild Stream and Wild River.  I put Roszell in the Top 3 of junior company oilmen in Canada (and arguably #1!).

In a market where nobody knew what would happen to oil, I just stuck with the basics.  Buy the best team you can.  They had over $100 million cash already–unique in the Canadian juniors.

Roszell et al have done exactly what I had hoped. 

After six months of a very flat, very tight stock chart, in November Headwater bought 100% of Cenovus’ (CVE-NYSE/TSX) assets in Marten Hills for $100 million ($35 million cash, $65 million equity). This gave them 270 net sections of Clearwater rights and 2,800 bbl/d of medium oil production.

The Clearwater is probably the most economic play in the entire history of Canadian oil.  So the best team is now operating the best asset.  The fact that most of this play is private says how profitable it is.

When they announced it, the stock took off.  It was a textbook breakout and screamed at investors to get long.

At the time they acquired the assets Headwater guided Q4 2021 production to 7,500-8,000 boe/d.

The first quarter results came out a couple of weeks ago and they pushed that estimate up.  They raised Q4 guidance to 9,000 – 9.500 boe/d.

The Q1 results matched expectations.  Production for the quarter came in at 4,800 boe/d – which is 192% over the prior quarter.

A short refresher on Clearwater at Marten Hills.  Clearwater wells are shallow (675 meter), heavy oil (18-19 API) wells that produce IP30 ~40-50 bbl/d per lateral.

Headwater is drilling these laterals 8 at a time, so a single wellbore is producing more than 400 bbl/d IP30. 

You can get an idea of how tightly spaced these laterals are from the map below:

Source: Headwater Exploration May Presentation

What sets these wells apart is the economics.  The IRR of the Tier 1 acreage is >500%.  As context–when I was studying every new play that came up in the early 2010s, my threshold was 75% IRR for an unconventional shale play, and 60% for an old-style, conventional oil pool like we have here.

Source: Raymond James

The Canadian arm of brokerage Raymond James put it like this a couple of months ago:.

“We can safely say we have never seen play economics quite as strong as the results coming from the Clearwater at Marten Hills.”

These are some of the best netbacks in the industry, second only to Parex (PXT – TSX) (who of course is producing in Colombia down in South America, not Alberta).

Source: Stifel

Raymond James estimated in their February initiation report that the Clearwater wells had an NPV of $8.4 million per well based on their mid-February strip.

Oil has moved from $57 to $68 since that time. 

The outlook for oil looks solid if not spectacular.   I’m not yet a believer that $100 oil is on the horizon.  There is still plenty of OPEC production that can be brought online.

But as long as the United States is not ramping production OPEC seems be in no hurry to bring back capacity.  The US rig count is far away from looking worrisome. 

As a result, US oil production is looking remarkably flat.

These fundamentals bode well for Headwater which can do just fine at $60 oil.  Stifel is estimating $40 million of free cash flow in 2022 based on the forward strip.  But the end of next year, Stifel is predicting the company will be positioned for $160 million of cash flow and $110-$120 million of annual free cash flow.

Headwater has a market cap of ~$840 million.  There is no debt and a net cash position of $80 million.

That means the stock is trading at ~7x FCF.  So it’s hard to say it’s expensive.

April results for the 4 most recently drilled sections were released in the latest company presentation.  They appear inline with what Headwater has been achieving over the past few months.

Source: Headwater May Investor Presentation

Headwater will keep drilling through their Tier 1 inventory but there is a lot of room left.  Below in yellow are the 15 tier-1 sections that the company owns.  The map is pre-Q1.  In Q1 they added laterals to section 23, 26, and 35.

Source: Raymond James

Growth after 2021 will come from exploration and a waterflood.

In Q1 2022 Headwater plans to start exploring on the larger land package.  Remember, they have 127 sections, and the core area is only 15 sections.  Some early results from Headwater and Spur Petroleum are showing 20-30 bbl/d lateral from a couple of these sections.

Headwater is also working towards a waterflood on the core area.  They are still evaluating but with only ~5% of the oil expected to be produced through primary recovery, a waterflood could be another big cash generator for the company.

What I like about Headwater is that they do not need $80 oil to generate a lot of cash.  They can do very well at $55 oil and extremely well at $65.

The stock has likely priced in 2021.  What may not be priced in is the free cash generation beginning in 2022. 

What is definitely not priced in are successful waterflood results or exploration success.

The stock is up 4x since I bought it.  While the fast big run may be over, I think the slow big run could still continue.  You have the best team operating in the best play, and their stock now has the highest multiple I see in the space–all of it deserved. 

That makes M&A much easier–they can likely get a turn or two multiple lower on their M&A now and make it a bit easier to have instantly accretive acquisitions.  (Nobody else really has that in the junior sector yet.) And sellers want to sell to someone they know can develop it properly–because most of these deals are stock and just a bit of cash.  HWX has instantly become the consolidator of choice for all the small privates operating there.

In the ivory tower world of Calgary CEOs, nobody will be embarrassed if they get bought out by Roszell & HWX.  For those CEOs who want liquidity and an ongoing increased share price–ideally, Roszell or someone like Grant Fagerheim at Whitecap (WCP-TSX) buys you.

The Canadian junior oil sector is nowhere near as exciting as it used to be–there’s no new plays, no new teams.  But it is now incredibly profitable–as profitable as it has ever been really.

We haven’t seen M&A in the junior oil patch for awhile. But the stage is now set for it here at HWX.  The Big Slow Run will continue I think.

DISCLOSURE–I’M LONG HWX.

Why Billionaires Use This App to Track Canadian Stocks

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How Bullish Is The Uranium Trade Now?

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I’m hearing a lot of bullish chatter on uranium right now—and after listening to all of it in the last 3 days, I’m still not sure about the trade.

I made my first big grubstake on uranium stocks in 2006-2008, so I know a little bit about it. And I’ve known enough to stay as far away from uranium as possible for the last decade. But now what’s old is new again, in a couple ways.

One of the big reasons uranium stocks had a huge run in the mid 2000s was because legendary mining investor Eric Sprott started a fund to purchase physical uranium supply and tighten the market. That was so long ago, I’m not sure how well he succeeded but literally dozens of stocks were 5-10 baggers or better. I paid off my first house with that sector.

Now Sprott’s old firm is taking over a uranium holding company (they own physical yellowcake–U-TSX) and plans to

  1. turn it into a fund,
  2. list it in the US
  3. raise several hundred million dollars
  4. and buy up physical uranium again

To me it sounds like the exact same business model that took the industry market cap from millions to billions.

In the intervening 13 years, uranium bulls have had to muddle through a few issues. One is that the green movement can’t decide if uranium is good or bad. The second was the Fukushima incident in 2011 in Japan where a tsunami overwhelmed a nuclear power plant, causing the cores to melt and turn public opinion against nuclear for a decade.

From what I read, uranium demand is slowly increasing. But still, prices have been so low that the world’s #1 producer, Cameco, has had not one but three of its largest mines offline for years at a time as they were unprofitable. That hardly sounds like a bull market, does it? 

To me it’s a lot like oil—where a concentrated group of large suppliers have HUGE excess capacity, but show enough restraint to convince the Market of their madness. One big difference between the two commodities is—the oil price and oil production was moving up immediately prior to COVID, indicating a robust market. That was definitely not happening in uranium.

I don’t think we are in any danger of being short oil in the coming years, and I think that’s the same for uranium. There’s LOTS of the stuff around. It’s a bit of a manufactured scarcity—but the Market may be willing to pay for that.

Uranium bulls point to two of Cameco’s Saskatchewan assets being depleted by 2026—just in time for the largest uranium deposit the world has ever seen—the Arrow deposit by NexGen (NXE-TSX/NYSE) come online—also in Saskatchewan.. 

Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin is a freak of geological nature like the South African platinum, or even South African gold—it’s so high grade most geologists—and the public—have a hard time wrapping their heads around it.

Even saying that, the Arrow deposit is a freak of nature. When it gets into production it will account for over 20% of global production. There is no other mine in any other commodity in the world that comes close to that. High grade, huge—by definition it will be a low cost producer.

So fundamentally, I’m not convinced uranium deserves a much higher price. Can the producers bully their small customer base (the large utility companies) into paying a higher price through manufactured scarcity? Maybe, but I would not be betting my last dollar on it. I see in the U-TSX powerpoint that they are expecting a big increase in Asian utility buying starting in 2025—new demand that will hopefully increase prices. Hey, I hope it’s true—I really do want everybody to make money.

And speaking of prices, the published spot price is only a small volume mechanism, compared to the huge contracts signed between producers and customers. So while it is valid, it’s not COMEX either. (To be fair, the spot market has been increasing its market share the last few years.)

Also–a decade ago wind and solar became the big alternative power sources, and now it’s lithium and hydrogen eating uranium—and uranium investors’—lunch. Is that going to change? Are politicians going to score ESG points by touting uranium? Are ESG funds going to score ESG points—by buying uranium instead of the latest EV or solar technology SPAC? Not sure about that.

But if the bulls are right, these stocks have a long way to go in this liquidity fueled stock market. Most of the stocks I bought 6-8 months ago are up 3-8x. Cameco (CCO-TSX/CCJ-NYSE) is not even a double yet. Nexgen (NXE-NYSE/TSX) is a little over a double. Denison (DML-TSX/DNN-NYSE) is a triple. All these stocks are inter-listed in the US, giving them great liquidity.

So it’s deja-vu all over again. In the mid-2000s, uranium prices had been low for a long time. Then came a new business model to spur prices higher. Now that man’s namesake company (Eric is no longer part of Sprott) is doing the same thing again 13 years later, in the exact same market conditions. Maybe lightning strikes twice—well it already is as these stocks are running now and the premium to NAV for U-TSX is at the upper end of its range.

Uranium won’t be A Big Trade for me. But I do own a small amount of U-TSX for physical exposure, and some URA-NYSE—the ETF that owns the stocks of all the uranium producers and developers (like Nexgen). 

I’m not sold on this trade. But I am long. Here’s a list of the Top 10 Holdings for the URA-NYSE ETF.

The Next Generation of EV Batteries May Have Just Arrived

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The EV battery of the future may have just got a lot cheaper, charge faster and be more environmentally friendly, thanks to Nano One Materials Corp. (NNO-TSXv/NNOMF-OTC).

The company just announced it has passed a crucial set of battery testing milestones with a “multi-billion-dollar Asian cathode material producer” with their High Voltage Spinel (HVS), also known as LNMO-Lithium Nickel Manganese Oxide technology.

What this means is that Nano One and the big Asian company tested NNO’s unique cathode chemistry—which uses no cobalt and very little nickel—and it passed a huge array of tests.

These would be tests like (and I know this from previous chats with the team over the last two years):

  1. How fast did it charge up and how fast did it spend its power
  2. All that charging at different temperatures—from very cold to very hot
  3. What was the power density

“When you’re testing the materials, you’re looking for does it have the capacity?” Dan Blondal said in an interview this morning. “Can you cycle it? So each cycle being one tank of gas. 

“And is it economically viable? So the materials that are going in and the process being used to work on it, is it going to be economically viable? And then ultimately, how quickly can you charge it and discharge it? And this material in particular is very fast charging.

 

Blondal wouldn’t say exactly what their milestones or achievements were, but they were positive enough to move into commercialization discussions with their un-named partner (first announced last August).

 

The Market could see that their IP with the higher voltage—which makes the battery much more efficient—has a good chance to be globally adopted.

NNO already has a named deal with Volkswagen, and openly says they are working with MANY global automakers, their OEMs and power tool companies, among others. By the way, VW said in its Power Day presentation a few weeks ago that the LNMO chemistry–there’s actually three chemistries that are being used–(LFP (cheap safe/low range) and NMC (luxury long range/expensive) are the other ones) was front and center for them. 

NNO uses a solid state LNMO technology; there’s no liquid electrolyte and that was the big problem with it in the past. NNO is the first company to make LNMO work in a conventional battery.

“This batter technology certainly charges faster and punches a lot of power,” says Blondal. “And it’s cheaper. Literally the key things are is that it’s got the higher voltage and better power, it charges faster, and it’s basically got no cobalt and not much nickel in it. So it’s a relatively inexpensive battery.

“So you’re dollars per kilowatt hour drops.”

Blondal knows there is still a lot of work to do—in fact he almost goes out of his way to make sure people understand that this is a big step, but there’s more work to do. It’s not a commercial technology yet. No battery yet uses this.

But they are the world leader at this point. They have a proprietary method of making the next EV battery cheaper, fast charger and be more environmentally friendly—by not using as much nickel and cobalt.

Blondal explained the feature/benefit set in simple terms:

“It’s also got a three-dimensional structure, a crystal structure which allows lithium to go in and out really fast. So that’s what allows it to quickly charge and discharge. But that three-dimensional structure also keeps it from expanding and contracting, so it doesn’t strain the inside of the battery as much.

“And then lastly, because it’s high voltage, it’s about 25% higher voltage than other cathode materials, so that actually has some interesting application, let’s say, in something like a power tool or even electric vehicles.

“You don’t have to string as many of them together to get the voltage. So you kind of simplify the battery pack.

“And because it’s higher voltage, you generate less heat. So thermal management gets easier.

“It’s more powerful and more efficient and ultimately more productive of a battery. So those are all the kind of the reigning characteristics of the material. That’s the whole package.”

Blondal said that this new stage of development would not increase Nano One’s burn rate–for now. But one of the reasons they wanted $30 million + in their treasury was for both negotiating power with partners, and for the potential to be an active partner, not just a royalty play on their technology.

I’ve always thought NNO has the potential to be a “unicorn” stock—and get a market leader’s valuation. While the overall market for that kind of stock performance may have passed (how many middle finger charts do we see out there?), the underlying technology here could get Nano One noticed by a much larger and more validating group of investors.

The Next Big Investor Meme of 2021—DE-CENTRALIZATION

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The Next Big Investor Meme of 2021
DE-CENTRALIZATION

Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now know their secret to success.

They just didn’t build a business. They built platforms for the masses.

And once their customers joined their platform, they didn’t want to leave.

And investors profited greatly.

Those 5 stocks outperformed the S&P by a stunning margin:
 

If you invested in the S & P 500 but excluded FAANG stocks, you made 40%.  But if you invested in only FAANG stocks, you made 400%. That is a ratio of 10-1!

In 2020, FAANG along with Tesla, made up HALF of the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Everybody “gets” platforms. The public companies that generate the greatest return to their investors offer products that empower their customers.

Google: Find stuff easy on the Internet.

Amazon: Shopping mall of the world without leaving your chair.

Netflix: Watch movies at home, anytime you like.

And so on.

It’s easy to see in hindsight. We should all be millionaires by now, right?  The point here is that all these stocks were Big Ideas, or “Memes”

But what “MEME” will drive outsize investor returns in THIS COMING DECADE?

Here is a very big clue:
 

And here is another:
 

Reddit is a social media company. In 2020, it average 52 million daily visitors.

The “Wall Street Bets” subreddit has 6 million users.

Yes, THAT Wall Street Bets—the one that took GameStop (GME-NYSE) from $20 to almost $500.  You can argue that was just dumb money—but the point is that technology now allows for very large amounts of retail money to accumulate and focus!

A decentralized army of investors rallied around one of their favourite stocks—and with more than a tinge of revolution running in their veins—tried to “stick it to The Man”—and created the Mother of all short squeezes.

This is a huge new source of power in the investing world—an aggregated army of retail investors.
 

How much is Reddit valued at now, do you think? Even though it is a private company, it is estimated to be worth US$6 billion, according to the latest round of funding.

And what is Reddit?

Reddit is a platform and a community.  It is a de-centralized collection of communities.

Now, I hate big words.  But I’m telling you de-centralized could become the most important investing word of 2021.

De-centralized Communities Will Have A Huge Impact
On Society And Stock Indexes Now

 
With social media technology now, a large decentralized community can gather and become a force.  Reddit is part of the first wave.  Telegram is another example.

 

With 500 million users all over the world, guaranteeing privacy in communication to its user base, it is emerging as a real threat to Facebook.
 

Where Is De-Centralization Essential? CRYPTO

 
Bitcoin and crypto has been one of–if not THE–biggest investing memes of 2021.

Bitcoin is probably the single largest decentralized army of investors in the world—especially in the 2nd and 3rd world.

Western investors do not understand that crypto is allowing these citizens–and I mean 5 BBBBILLION plus– to look after their own money without being de-valued by their central governments.

All the rich white money in North America who constantly “diss” crypto and bitcoin just don’t seem to grasp how important—no, essential—crypto is to the financial well being of over 5 BILLION people.  Asia and Africa and South America get it—they’re driving crypto.  This is how they can get around the politics and economics of corruption and inefficiency.

Imagine the power of being able to aggregate that 2nd & 3rd world army, and the Reddit crowd in the 1st world.

Well, I found a company that is about to do just that.

Hold on to your hats, because this company’s plan—and management is about to start executing within weeks—has the potential to be one of the biggest economic and social stories of 2021.

When you get BILLIONS of disenfranchised individuals joining a community (crypto/bitcoin) that is decentralized and anonymous—and can focus them for their own economic gain…as Martha Stewart says That’s A Good Thing.

And as this team is able to show big growth in the coming weeks, I see the Street jumping on board with this company and this stock in A Big Way.

Having any kind of decentralized platform for crypto investors has been very lucrative for investors in the last 12 months.

Coinbase, the largest crypto-exchange in the United States is rumoured to be coming to the public market with a valuation of $77 billion.

But let’s talk about another company, closer to home: Investing Whisperer subscriber pick Voyager Digital (VYGR-CSE), has jumped from $1 – $30 in weeks and now sports a market cap of $4 billion.  It is one of my biggest wins in recent memory.

There’s also BIGG Digital Assets (BIGG-CSE), which runs a cryptocurrency exchange called Netcoins, among other things. It ran from four cents to $1.71, and now has a $300 million market cap.

These companies are not just building a platform–they are building community.

And I think I have possibly found the next Voyageur…or the next BIGG..
 

Do Not Miss My Email Tomorrow!!!

 
This company has a market cap of under $100 million CAD

It’s backed by a top management team and board members who have a track record of success.

Most importantly though, it’s building a HUGE DE-CENTRALIZED community.

This platform is so popular after its Beta launch, it has a waiting list of 100,000 people who want to use it.
This company will open the doors to those people in a very short time.

The Last Big Meme was Social Platforms. The Current Big Meme is Crypto.  The Next Big Meme is De-Centralization.  This company has all three, and they’re launching imminently.

Tomorrow you get the company name, symbol, and the details around opening the doors for this 100,000-investor army that wants to get marching.
 

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/these-six-tech-stocks-make-up-half-the-nasdaq-100s-value.html
  2. https://variety.com/2021/digital/news/reddit-valuation-6-billion-funding-1234903908/
  3. https://www.businessofapps.com/data/telegram-statistics/

DOES OLD FASHIONED RESEARCH—DIGGING—STILL WORK? THE CASE FOR ACACIA RESEARCH (ACTG – NASDAQ)

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Sum of the parts analysis is out of style. Today we invest on memes and charts and symbols like

Call me a dinosaur but I think there is still value to good old-fashioned research.
Acacia Research Group (ACTG – NASDAQ) requires some digging. It checks many of the boxes of a difficult stock.
There is an opaque business (patent litigation) with irregular earnings, there are hard to value private assets, the dependence on uncertain legal outcomes and a share structure with warrants, preferreds an convertibles.
Not easy. And B-O-R-I-N-G.
But if you are willing to take the time to add up all the parts, an investment in ACTG may make it worth your while.

QUICK FACTS

Trading Symbols:                                     ACTG
Share Price Today:                                   $8.00
Shares Outstanding:                                127 Million*
Market Capitalization:                              $1,016 million
Net Debt:                                                  -$540 billion
Enterprise Value:                                     $474 million
* fully diluted shares assuming all in-the-money warrants and converts are exercised.

Diamond in the Rough

The first part to add up is Oxford Nanopore.
Oxford Nanopore in ACTG’s largest investment in a private company. They have a 6% ownership.
Oxford Nanopore is a genetic sequencing company. They have developed a long-read sequencing platform.
A simple explanation of long-read sequencing is that it is a method of reading DNA that reads very long strands at a time.
Oxford Nanopore recently signed a deal with the UK government to provide precision detection of COVID and other pathogens on a rapid basis. And there is plenty of hype around long-read sequencing.
The prior standard had been short-read sequencing. A $66 billion player, Illumina (ILMN – NASDAQ), is the leader in the space. Long-read sequencing is the upstart.
It has been finding use cases, making inroads and catching the attention of the investment community.  Oxford Nanopore’s main long-read competition is another high-flying public company, Pacific Biosciences (PACB – NASDAQ).
The chart of PACB is impressive.
Oxford Nanopore is a private company, but a public offering seems inevitable.  US small cap broker/dealer Craig Hallum calls Oxford Nanopore “one of the hottest IPOs this year”.
In a note in late January, Craig Hallum pinpointed the potential upside to ACTG.  “Running the math on this valuation ACTG’s Oxford position could be worth $420M.”
I will delve into ACTG’s somewhat complicated share structure shortly. But suffice to say the enterprise value of ACTG is a little under $500 million right now.
In other words, if Craig Hallum is right, the Oxford Nanopore position is worth nearly as much as the price of the stock.

But That is Not All…

You are getting much more than just a ticket to the Oxford Nanopore IPO.
ACTG listed their public and private company investments in their Q3 press release.
Source: Acacia Q3 2020 Press Release
Source: Acacia Q3 2020 Press Release
The portfolio adds up to $85 million ex-Oxford Nanopore.
BUT wait – this is as of Q3.
Since the end of Q3 things have changed. In particular – a huge rally has happened in the biotech space.
Biotech stocks are on fire. The Nasdaq IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB-NASD) is up close to 50% since Q3.
The three public company names on the list are all up:
·       Sensyne Health plc (SENS – AIM) has gone from GBp58 to GBp168.
·       Arix Bioscience (ARIX – LSE) is currently GBp200 versus GBp111 at the end of Q3.
·       Induction Healthcare Group (INHC – AIM) is roughly flat.
As for the private companies, the best place to start is with Immunocore (IMCR -NASDAQ). That is because Immunocore recently went public.
The IPO was at $26 but the stock has nearly doubled from there.  ACTG had a 5% pre-IPO ownership, or about 1.65 million shares. Those are worth $74 million today.
Viamet Pharmaceuticals and AMO Pharma are more difficult to peg down.
Viamet is a royalty company. One of their royalties is for the drug oteseconazole, which they licensed out to Mycovia Pharmaceuticals.  Oteseconazole had positive phase 3 data in December and Mycovia seeks FDA approval of their drug in 1H21. It is hard to know what other royalties they hold.
AMO Pharma announced the start of a pivotal trial for their drug AMO-02, which is targeting a rare disease in children. AMO-02 was granted rare pediatric disease designation from the FDA.
Both companies are worth something, but it is difficult to know how much.
But even ignoring them entirely, the portfolio (ex-Oxford Nanopore) is currently worth at least $175 million.

The Starboard Connection

ACTG was not always in the business of buying portfolios of biotech companies.
In September 2019 ACTG went through an overhaul. The company announced a new CEO (Clifford Press) and a new Chief Investment Officer (Alfred Tobia Jr.).
A couple of months later they announced a strategic investment from Starboard Value, a private equity fund.
Starboard ponied up cash for ACTG to invest. They took on $365 million in senior notes and another $35 million in preferred shares. In return they were granted warrants for 100 million shares.
That cash is being used to buy portfolios. Those 9 companies listed Q3 above were purchased from the Woodford Equity Income Fund. Woodford was a poor performing fund that was eventually wound up.
ACTG paid $282 million for the fund’s ownership interest. The Starboard funds were used to pay for it.

The Balance Sheet – A Bit Complicated

One consequence of the Starboard partnership is a complicated share structure.
There are shares and warrants and convertible preferred.
With ACTG at $8 everything is in the money, so it is best to assume that everything gets exercised.
That means the share count will go way up. But the net cash level will too.
By my calculations, the fully diluted share count is 127 million. That would put the market cap at ~$1 billion at $8.
But… if you count the warrants, you have to count the cash.
In this fully diluted scenario, all the debt is paid off and cash balance would be $540 million.
That puts the enterprise value at $460 million. Not expensive for what I have described so far.

The Patent Litigation Business

And… we still have not talked about the patent business.
ACTG buys patents and then looks for ways to monetize them.  They either license the IP or litigate companies that are illegally using it.
Before Starboard came along this was ACTG’s core business. ACTG has made over 1,580 license agreements on over more than 200 patent portfolio programs.
The business remains alive and well. In 2019 ACTG acquired 5 new patent portfolios. In 2020 they acquired another 4 portfolios.
These patents are relevant to today’s technology and ATCG should be able to realize value from them.
The 4 patent portfolios ACTG acquired in the first quarter of 2020 represent over 3,000 patents. They cover everything from Yahoo! patents for internet search, cloud computing, e-commerce, location-based services, mobile apps, media management and social networking, to commercial applications of Wi-Fi and Internet-of-Things technologies, to storage and memory patents on flash memory systems such as solid-state drives and controllers.
The revenue from these patent portfolios is lumpy. ACTG recognizes revenue when they win litigation or sign a licensing agreement.
Take the third quarter. Q3 was a banner quarter – $19 million of revenue. But 98% of that came from one license agreement. The past few quarters have been lackluster.
Source: ACTG Quarterly Filings
Revenue is expected to tick up going forward. On the Q3 call ACTG said that the new patent portfolios looked promising, and they “are on track to deliver the returns that we anticipated when we acquired these assets earlier this year and late last year.”
The patent business might not be worth much or it might be worth a lot – we just have to see how successful ACTG is in delivering returns from it.

The Next Steps

If Oxford Nanopore is worth $400 million and the rest of the portfolio is worth $200 million, you are already 30% higher than the current enterprise value.
The big valuation creation event will be an Oxford Nanopore IPO. If Craig Hallum is right, that gap should narrow.
Just this week Pacific Bioscience got a huge injection of cash ($900 million) from Softbank. Yes, they are competition to Oxford Nanopore, but more important is that money continues to flow into the space.
There is one caveat. None of these positions are long term holds for ACTG. In the first 6 months after acquiring the Woodford fund ACTG sold out of 7 of their 12 public company positions.
What is great is that ACTG can sell for profit without paying taxes.  The company has over $100 million of tax-loss carryforwards to offset gains.
So expect more sales. But also expect more acquisitions. On the third quarter call ACTG said:
As we’ve said, this was an opportunistic acquisition, and it was one that came to us as part of our process of identifying and evaluating another potential investment.
Recently we purchased an option on a very significant new portfolio that we believe represents an extremely rare opportunity.
The rise in the share price and warrant exercise will give ACTG a full war chest to make these purchases.
There are a lot of moving pieces here. A lot of cash and a lot of potential. Starboard has already shown it can dig up a good deal for ACTG. Another one could be soon. You get that option essentially for free – as you add up the parts and realize that the sum is less than you have to pay.
You just have to do your old-fashioned research.