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Have you had trouble wrapping your head around this market? I know I have. The economic data is ugly. 10%+ unemployment is not a good place to be, no matter how you frame it. A second wave of the virus means a slowdown and a W-shaped recovery even if there...
By Bill Powers "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein Therefore, energy investors in North America are insane. Cheap money (low interest rates) and high oil prices encouraged the drilling of many marginal plays from 2010-2014--causing a huge amount of energy bankruptcies after...
It’s clear from comments on Q2 conference calls in the last week that North American producers ARE getting more efficient—lowering costs—in producing tight oil, or shale oil.  And they don’t think they’ve hit their limits yet. The high tech reason for these improvements? Simple sand.  It is stunning to me...
Tanker stocks around the globe were crushed on Thursday as the TeeKay group--with six US listed equities and bonds--reduced their dividend to shore up their balance sheet. That was my oppotunity--and for OGIB subscribers. I've been following another tanker group--Golar (GLNG-NASD) and Golar Partners (GMLP-NASD) for years.  I knew the companies, I had...
Even with WTI prices above $70 per barrel, and international Brent crude closer to $80… there really isn’t much geopolitical premium in the oil price yet. And that’s scary (as in… scary bullish) because war in the Middle East has rarely looked more certain—in two places. First off, oil prices are...
What’s the most un-sustainable part of the global energy complex? Maybe you would say co-ordinated OPEC production cuts. Or perhaps you would bring up high growth rates of shale producers. If you talked about the lack of free cash flow among shale producers you would be getting warm… But for me, when I...
What did Chevron accomplish in 2015 by outspending cash flow by $19 billion? Increase production a paltry 2%. Barely replace reserves--107% of production. That is what Chevron managed to achieve in 2015 by spending $31 billion while generating just $19 billion of cash flow.  And that is actually incredibly bullish, despite...
by +Keith Schaefer Last week I looked at breaking developments that suggest the Duvernay shale may be the most profitable play in Canadian history. Consider just two points on the play—hot off the press at a tight-knit gathering of Duvernay insiders put on by TD Securities in Toronto a few weeks ago: Well...