What is the #1 rule of real estate?

Location, location, location.

How about your smart phone? What is the most valuable real estate on your (and hundreds of millions of other’s) smart phone?

It’s the home-screen of course; the one you see as soon as your phone boots up.

Second question.  Who owns the prime real estate on your smart phone?

You, right?  Well, not really.  Actually, you are more like a co-owner – with your wireless carrier. How so?

Before you ever touch your phone, the carrier installs their software on the device.

This is software you can’t uninstall.  You can’t turn it off.

This software the pre-installs apps to your phone before you even get your hands.

It delivers ads, notifications and recommendations to you.

It can even create a library of content curated to what the carrier wants you to see.

Yet you don’t even realize it is there.

But it is – when you try out the apps that appear right there in front of you, or click on a notification that shows up in your stream, or consider the recommended content in a folder.

What you are really experiencing is the carrier monetizing their prime real estate.

I have found THE tiny company that builds that software.  It’s in my portfolio over at www.InvestingWhisperer.com.  It’s a smallcap stock trading under $10, and growing like crazy.

It’s up 29.8% since I bought it, but I think it’s going MUCH higher. I’m going to give you my report on it for FREE.

This company is the landlord that helps the carriers collect their rent.

They find the tenants (the app developers and advertisers).  They analyze the data. They create the tools.

The carriers – and this tiny little company – just sit back and collect their rent.

What is unbelievable is that this company is a small-cap. Some would call it a micro-cap.

Yet it provides the software that lets carriers monetize 100’s of millions of devices.

I’m not exaggerating.

Their software is probably on your phone right now.  You can’t see it. You can’t uninstall it.

But it’s there.  Delivering content to your phone – ads, apps, media – whatever the carrier wants.

This micro-cap controls the prime real estate on more than 250 million  Android devices globally – and is growing at 30+ per year.

And I think this company’s stock is a HUGE winner.  That kind of real estate portfolio just doesn’t go that cheap.  Get my FREE report on it by clicking HERE.

Why is it free? Because I want you to see my independent research at www.InvestingWhisperer.com, and consider subscribing to my service.  But I understand you want to see what you’re buying.

This micro-cap is the #3 app on smartphones after Google and Facebook.  It controls what you see on smartphone home screens.  It’s growing, it’s cash flow positive and I think the stock will be a massive home run – get your FREE report by clicking HERE.

The big news out this last week was that Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) will permanently shut its South Philadelphia refinery in the next month.

Whether “permanent” means permanent, well, we’ll see.  But at the very least, the refinery isn’t coming back any time soon.

I’ve been watching the refiners closely for the last couple months.  The stocks have been miserable performers–and that has actually piqued my interest.

The South Philadelphia refinery is a good-sized one at 335,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd)–making it one of the larger ones in the country.

Consider that East Coast (Padd II) refining capacity is about 1,200,000 bopd.

The question is – does this new shortage of gasoline increase prices enough to increase crack spreads and make refiners a buy?

I would love to believe that.  Like I said, they have been kicked in the teeth. They can have big moves up when circumstances are right.

Consider how poorly they’ve performed since the peak in the summer of 2018:

If this group could turn around, the upside could be material.  I’d love to time that turn.

The problem is–I’m not seeing it yet.

The entire refining complex got a nice kick on Tuesday from the Philadelphia news.  Kudos if you were able to catch that.

Some will benefit more than others.  PBF Energy (PBF-NYSE) has 34% of their capacity on the northern East Coast, so I would see them as a beneficiary.

But taking a step back, I just don’t see the refiners outperforming until the Market is confident oil product demand is back on track, and that means a jumpstart to the global economy.

Second, we are just not short of refining capacity.

While the loss of East Coast barrels will hurt, there is enough product capacity out there and so they will be made up with imports from the Gulf Coast or overseas.

Crack spreads have been weak for most of the year.  While they briefly recovered here in Q2 19, they are back down to 5-year lows.

This is not just happening in the United States–Asian refining margins have also been weak.  Singapore gasoline margins have been close to break-even.  On average for the year they are the lowest since 2008.  Chinese oil demand has been declining and Chinese refiners are responding by exporting products.

Meanwhile in the United States product inventories are mixed. Gasoline inventories are above the 5-year average while distillates are dropping below.

That isn’t really a bad picture–it’s just not a great one.

You need to believe in one of two things to be willing to bet on the refiners.

1. A global economic upturn
2. IMO 2020

Refiners are not safe havens.  They are extremely susceptible to economic swings.  Whenever I get the urge to buy a refiner I go back and remind myself of what happened in 2008.

Now I realize that 2008 was a once in a lifetime event (let’s hope!) but its still worthwhile to review just how bad the refiners did in that recession.

Looking at Valero (VLO-NYSE) –the biggest and “safest” of all the refiner names–the stock dropped from $50 to $10.

Overall they underperformed a terrible overall market by a significant margin.  On average the names fell nearly 80% top to bottom.

The recovery was even worse.   It took nearly two years after the broad market for the refiners to begin to recover.

The inescapable conclusion is that in a slowing economy a bet on refiners is a dangerous one. Before I can buy a refiner for anything more than a quick trade, I must have confidence in the economy.

I’m not feeling enough love there right now.

If you are looking for a reason to buy refiners, you don’t have to look any further than IMO 2020.

Last summer the prospects of IMO 2020 sent the refiners up to their highs.  Some of that has come off shine has come off since then but IMO will still have an impact.

Investors are still looking at a potentially major disruption to the crude products market.  There will be increases to crude distillate demand, but  how much though is still a matter of opinion.

As a quick recap, the shipping industry has historically used high-sulphur fuel oil to run their ships.  This isn’t very good for the environment and the new UN mandated sulphur cap of 0.5% is intended to rectify that.

IMO 2020 means that ships will be required to either switch to a low-sulphur fuel or use scrubbers on the ships to remove the sulphur from the exhaust.

At this point we know where the scrubber number is going to be;  estimating the required distillate demand from ships isn’t too difficult.

RBC Capital Markets put out a note earlier this year estimating that 860 mbbl/d of additional distillates would be required by refiners through higher utilization rates.

They went on to say that higher utilization would require better margins.  Refiners respond to price, and we need to see crack spreads increase to spur the supply.

The more complex refiners (mostly located in the United States and run by the big players like Valero (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC)) will incur extra benefits.  They have cokers and hydro-crackers that can take advantage of what is expected to be wider heavy oil spreads to produce gasoline and distillate products.

That is the bull-case in a nutshell.

When does IMO start to impact the market?

On their Q1 call, Valero said they expected effects on the high-sulphur fuel side to start to appear in late-September, with impacts on distillates occurring in November-December.

If I had more evidence that oil demand (and the global economy) was strong, I would look at the impact of IMO 2020 and jump in for a trade.

But my question is, does it get lost in the shuffle?  A slow economy could offset a lot of that upside.

Another factor to watch is the WTI-Brent spread, which has curiously  been narrowing.  US refiners have the advantage of buying and refining WTI crude, which has trades at a discount to other crude types – particularly the Brent crude used by most European refiners.

The discounted WTI crude used by U.S. refiners boosts their margins as the refined products trade at similar prices across all regions regardless of the crude used to produce them

I’ll keep watching spreads, the forward curve on distillates, and the spreads on heavy oil.  Maybe these spreads will start to show me I’m being too cautious.

I’m willing to change my mind as the facts change.  But until then I’ll take the safer path and keep my money in my wallet.

EDITORS NOTE: I cover all kinds of energy stocks–including some solar stocks, which have been doing great lately.  My latest solar pick is up $7/share in the last 6 weeks. I think it’s going A LOT higher.  Get the name and symbol on this stock: Click here for quarterly access $ 149 per quarter (30 days no-questions refund)

Roscan Gold is the stock that I think will be The Next Big Discovery in the mining world.

And it couldn’t have come at a better time, with gold breaking out above 5 year highs.

As I explain how CEO Greg Isenor and Director Dave Mosher have discovered over 10 million ounces of gold – with two of those assets now in production, you’ll probably gasp when I tell you this stock is trading at… 20 cents.

Twenty cents.  And here’s what they have:
1. They’re surrounded by some of the highest grade & most profitable gold mines in the world
2. With a cashed up treasury,
3. Two sets of great drill results already released
4. That caused a group of Smart Money to buy the last financing
3. Drills turning now

In a good gold market like we have now, and a Tier 1 team who have built and sold juniors before – the Market will instantly reward this stock it it hits a major multi-million ounce gold discovery.

The next set of drill results will be out in weeks.  Gold stocks are SO cheap, there is a BIG and EASY jump in them when they hit good results. Roscan Gold has a legitimate shot of being a MAJOR WIN before the end of 2019.

In this gold market, it will only take one press release.

Roscan is now drilling at its Mali (West Africa) based Kandiolé Project.  The West Mali Gold Belt has more than 35 million ounces of HIGH GRADE gold discovered – making it one of the most profitable regions in the world, with four HUGE mines operating right around Roscan’s Kandiole.  In fact, one of these mines is quite possibly the single most profitable gold mine in the world right now.

Of course, in a good gold market you own mostly the senior producers.  But Roscan is more than “a cheapie with a chance” as I’ll explain – this company has followed the rules of Discovery Investing to a “T”.

They’ve found and sold mines – that are producing today.  They own 25 million shares of Roscan. They’re in one of the highest grade gold belts in the world. There’s money in the bank and they are drilling NOW.  It ticks all the boxes for Discovery Investing.

And personally, I think a major discovery here is a matter of time – which is why I’ve loaded my portfolio up with Roscan shares right now. See if you agree.

CEO Greg Isenor has already made two major gold discoveries in the West Mali Gold Belt with the Siribya and Diakha deposits, which are now owned by IAMGold.  In fact, Siribya is right beside Kandiole, the property that Roscan is drilling on RIGHT NOW.  So when I tell you Isenor is an expert in this prolific gold belt, believe it. This man finds multi-million ounce gold deposits! And he finds them right here!

Before those two discoveries, Isenor also led the team that discovered the 5 million ounce Bissa gold deposit in Burkina Faso, also in West Africa.  It is now a producing mine operated by Nord Gold, a private Russian producer.

After 15 years in West Africa and 10 million ounces of gold under his belt, Isenor knows this region better than anyone else on the planet.

Kandiole is a project that Isenor has wanted to get his hands on so badly – for a decade – that when it came available, he had to commit the first $750,000 personally because the gold market was so bad at the time.  And he’s kept buying shares in the open market when he wasn’t in blackout periods.  At 20 cents, that tells me all I really need to know.

Director David Mosher brings more serious credibility to the Roscan story.

Under Mosher as CEO the market capitalization of High River Gold Mines increased from $7 million to more than $1 billion before it was acquired… CHA-CHA-CHA-CHING!!!

Mosher took three mines fully from exploration through to production at High River – including a mine in West Africa that is exactly like what the Roscan team sees at Kandiole.

All together the leadership group of Roscan has discovered almost 10 million ounces of gold through projects that are now producing.  And they’re drilling for their next one RIGHT NOW at Kandiole.

They’re considered such a sure bet by the Street, that more than 40% of Roscan’s shares are held by institutions. You NEVER SEE THAT for a junior miner of this size.  The Smart Money already owns the stock.

That credibility means that as soon as Roscan hits – the Market will reward them instantly, because the Street knows that Roscan’s leadership group can monetize a discovery.

That is why The Big Pay-Off here is potentially in months – not years.

Surrounded By Big Profitable Gold Mines

The West Mali Gold Belt is one of the the most productive greenstone gold belts in the world.

There are multiple 5 million ounce plus properties here, including:

Sadiola Mine (Iamgold – IMG-TSX) – 14 million ounces

Loulo Mine (Barrick – GOLD-NYSE) – 12 million ounces

Gounkoto Mine (Barrick – GOLD-NYSE) – 5 million ounces

Fekola Mine (B2 Gold – BTO-TSX) – 5.15 million ounces

The region is loaded with gold to the north, south, east and west of Roscan.

These 5 million ounce plus projects aren’t just big – they are also extremely profitable.

B2gold’s Fekola Deposit – in production right beside Roscan – is the 2nd lowest cost mine in the world with production of 400,000 oz gold or more.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for Fekola in 2018 were $533/oz – that isn’t good; with a $1,350/oz gold price that is great! The mine is gushing cash flow.

When I say best-in-the-world economics I’m not joking.  The table below details the AISC for the top gold miners in the world for 2018.

None of them even come close to $532/oz AISC of Fekola – an asset that could be a sister discovery to what Roscan may find.

Source: Financial Filings Of Respective Miners

What Are Five Million Ounces Of Gold Worth?

Mali is already home to several 5 million plus ounce discoveries, plus many more that are 1 million or higher.  They are all around Roscan.

It’s easy to see a 5 million ounce discovery in the stable gold mining region like Mali being worth $100/oz – B2Gold paid $108 per ounce to acquire Papillion immediately after discovery.

The table below shows you the price per ounce at which transactions have been taking place – the average and median both point to $100/oz.

 
$100/oz means that a 5 million ounce hit here for Roscan would be worth at least $500 million for a company with a market capitalization under $20 million today.

Being conservative – even if Roscan ends up with a share count of 200 million as it brings this discovery towards production we are looking at a company that could be worth:

$500 million value / 200 million shares = $2.50 per share

With a current share price of 20 cents the upside here is HUGE.

With one of the best exploration teams in the world – certainly in West Africa – working for me, I can see shareholders making millions in a hurry just to fairly value a discovery – there is more upside as the team takes this towards development.

Even if Isenor’s discovery turns out to be considerably smaller, Roscan investors will still do very well; with producing gold mines operating nearby even a 700,000 ounce discovery will be very valuable and worth far more than the current share price.

THE CONCLUSION IS OBVIOUS

Gold has broken out to a five year high!!  Because gold shares are SO cheap, there should be a fast and dramatic, first swing up.

I showed you charts of junior gold stocks that even in a bad gold market, made millionaires out of retail investors within weeks. It’s a fact: when a junior discovers a major gold deposit, the stock soars.  It is THE reason to invest in junior mining.

Now, with a GREAT gold market, the upside and frenzy should be even better.

Discovery Investing gives investors the best opportunity to make a life-changing win. This means:
1. Find a management team who have many discoveries.  Roscan – CHECK.
2. Make sure they own a lot of stock.  Roscan – CHECK.
3. They should be exploring in a big gold belt.  Roscan – CHECK.
4. Treasury is full? Roscan – CHECK.
5. Are they drilling NOW?  Roscan – CHECK.

On top of that, this tiny company already has huge institutional ownership – more than 40 percent of Roscan’s shares are institutionally owned. So the float on the stock is much smaller than you think.

To me, that means that when the retail money finds this stock, the upside here will happen spectacularly fast.  This is what investing in the juniors is all about. I didn’t mortgage my house to buy this stock, but I put enough in it that it will make a difference in my life if they hit.

Roscan looks just like High River Gold was before Roscan Director David Mosher took it from a market cap of $7 million to the more than $1 billion… on the back of another West Africa gold mine he discovered.

That is the upside potential.  The timeline to see that upside really isn’t a mystery.  Roscan is fully funded to drill constantly for this entire summer.

Drills are turning now.  Drill results will be steady for the next few months. All it is going to take is one little positive press release and Roscan’s stock could make investors at this price level very, very rich. That’s why I’m long ROS-TSXv.

Roscan management has sponsored this article. The information in this newsletter does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of a corporation or entity, including U.S. Traded Securities or U.S. Quoted Securities, in the United States or to U.S. Persons.  Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States except in compliance with the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable U.S. state securities laws or pursuant to an exemption therefrom.  Any public offering of securities in the United States may only be made by means of a prospectus containing detailed information about the corporation or entity and its management as well as financial statements.  No securities regulatory authority in the United States has either approved or disapproved of the contents of any newsletter.

Keith Schaefer is not registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”): as a “broker-dealer” under the Exchange Act, as an “investment adviser” under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, or in any other capacity.  He is also not registered with any state securities commission or authority as a broker-dealer or investment advisor or in any other capacity.

Have you ever had a stock go up 1000%–or 10x–in just one year?

It’s exhilarating–and a bit nerve wracking.

The best place to find these Huge Wins is in junior mining stocks.  And I expect to see A LOT more now that the gold price has broken out to 5 year highs.  There’s going to be a lot of new millionaires in the coming year!

As expected, only the senior gold stocks are moving so far–the intermediates and the juniors will follow.

I’m getting positioned NOW with one junior that has followed all the rules of what I call Discovery Investing

Discoveries makes stocks SOAR. Discoveries make retail investors rich.

Look at Great Bear Resources–GBR-TSXv from this time last year:

The stock soared from 60 cents to $3.40 in just two months–more than 500%!! once it made a discovery in one of the premier gold belts of the world–Red Lake in Ontario.  They followed all the rules–they had key shareholders who had built and sold juniors before and the company was cashed up with management’s money in a play with a great address.

Below, I’ll break-out these steps to successful to Discovery Investing–AND–show you where it’s pointing me in an email tomorrow. DON’T MISS TOMORROW’S EMAIL!!!!!!!!

I have every confidence that tomorrow’s email will make many of my readers A LOT of money.  I’m going to show you EXACTLY where I see The Next Big Discovery happening–likely within weeks.  And now that gold has broken out, expect the Market reaction to be immediate.

Discovery Investing Rule #1–You invest in a team that has built and sold a deposit before–making themselves and their shareholders rich. The team I’m introducing you to tomorrow has discovered and sold over 10 million ounces of gold!

Rule #1b–it’s even better if the deposit they discovered is in production.  This team has TWO assets now in production.

Rule #2–You want to see that management has put A LOT of their own money into their current company.

Tomorrow’s team owns over 25 million shares, and they paid for ALL of them. In fact, the CEO bought the
company’s property with his own money–this team is ALL-IN like few I’ve ever seen.

Rule #3–You want them exploring in a big mineralized area with lots of other mines–because you know that old saying–

“The best place to find gold is next to an existing mine”.

The Next Big Discovery–which I’m giving you on a gold platter tomorrow–is in a gold belt with over 35 million ounces discovered, where some of the most profitable mines in the world are operating right now.

Rule #4–treasury is cashed up and drilling.  Tomorrow’s company has the drills about to turn and is fully funded for this year.

The best part?  Well, exploration takes years–but investors have already seen some proof with the first set of drill results.  The stock ran up 400% in days! But in a tough junior mining market, it has come back to earth.

Management has continued to buy stock now that results are out, and the drills are about to turn again.

This stock has the PERFECT set-up.  It ticks all the boxes; it has followed this tried-and-true formula to a “T”.

I think it’s going to make a lot of people rich, in a very short period of time (including me!).

Here’s the story:

Management Has Already Done All the Hard Work

For more than a decade operating in this region this CEO has been stalking this specific property that is surrounded by major gold mines.

He watched with growing frustration as his most coveted opportunity sat in the hands of a party that couldn’t raise the money to develop it.

For ten long years he was unable to get his hands on the asset.  But he’s patient, and he was just able to buy this asset last year.

Raising money for grassroots exploration projects was almost impossible–so he used $750,000 of his own money as the lead order to buy it!

This man knows this region better than anyone! And for a decade this is the one property that he wanted. Now he has it.

This man has been exploring, developing and cashing out in this prolific gold trend area for 15 years with major success.  With his team he has been involved in discovering–and monetizing–almost 10 million ounces of gold.

At US$1,400 per ounce, that’s $14 billion in gold.  At an average valuation worldwide of $100 per ounce in the ground in a take-out, that’s $1 billion in shareholder value he and his team have created–all in this area.

But this is the Really Big Opportunity that he has always coveted.  And that’s why I want to put my money with this guy!

That is why he was the largest and lead order to get this asset initially and took on all of the risk.

You do that for one reason–because you know exactly what you are sitting on…a life-changing payoff.

It isn’t just the CEO who has loaded up with stock. The management and Board of Directors combined own more than 25 million shares and continue to add to that position. They have placed massive bets and are now on the cusp of being rewarded–the drills are turning NOW.

 
A Tiny Company Surrounded By Monster Gold Deposits

This company isn’t sitting beside an existing mine – it is surrounded by multiple mines which are SEVERAL multi-million ounce gold discoveries.

These are LOW COST producers–because they are high grade and near-surface. This is a mining investor’s dream!

As the only analyst who follows this company says…

“In our opinion, this company is in the early stages of making a major gold discovery…..”

“We believe these initial targets are only the tip of the iceberg…..”

There is no leap of faith required here. Everything around this property is laden with high-grade gold.

I’ve concluded that, the analyst has concluded that and company insiders have concluded that.

There were some GREAT results last year–and the stock jumped 400% IN ONE DAY.  Since then, the stock has returned to earth, and drilling in this prolific gold belt has just restarted.

The company has cash in the bank and yes, is now drilling.

How well situated is this property in this prolific gold belt?

Right beside this property you can find documented gold deposits of 14 million ounces, 12 million ounces, 5.15 million ounces, 5 million ounces and more.

Plus other recently announced discoveries that have yet to be quantified.

More importantly these discoveries don’t just contain a lot of gold, they contain a lot of gold that is highly profitable to mine.

The most high-profile producer in the region has AISC–All-In Sustaining Costs–of $600 per ounce of gold.
With gold selling at $1,400 per ounce you can make a lot of money by pulling it out of the ground for $600 per ounce.

To be clear I am Big Game Hunting with this stock – I’ve bought it because I expect a major positive announcement this summer.

I’m hoping for a repeat of the many 5 million ounce plus discoveries in the immediate area.  That has the potential (remember folks this is still all potential!) to make this stock a 20-bagger from here–and tomorrow I’ll show you my math on that.

My profits from this one stock will make my year.

WHAT IF I’M WRONG–and they only find a small gold deposit? Well, because it is completely surrounded by operating mines, even a minor gold discovery will result in a huge win for shareholders.

If this company finds only 10 percent of the gold that I’m expecting it will immediately make for an obvious takeover target for a nearby operator.

This management team is one of the top exploration groups in the business–who have already built and sold two other juniors.  They want to sell.  They own a BIG chunk of stock and want to recognized the value they’re creating.

And this puppy is so cheap–you’ll gasp tomorrow when I name this company and you see its share price. I expect any takeover to occur at a nice premium to the current share price.  And with gold starting to run, you can bet the producers will want to buy these high grade gold ounces as quick as they can.

For the next six months this company is going to be constantly drilling holes into this extraordinarily prolific property.

This non-stop drilling starts now and as soon as any good news comes out in this new gold market–this stock is gone.  This isn’t wealth creation that takes place gradually over time.  This is wealth creation that takes place overnight.

And that discovery–which could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars–will be 100% controlled by a company with a current market cap under $25 million.

Do Not Miss Tomorrow’s E-Mail!

That e-mail will tell you where I expect The Next Big Discovery–possibly within weeks.  It has every ingredient I look for:

1. Management has discovered, developed and sold close to 10 million ounces of gold. Two assets they developed are in production right now in this belt.
2. They own over 25 million shares
3. They’re exploring in one of the most prolific gold belts in the world, and are surrounded by other mines already in production
4. They’re cashed up and drilling NOW.

Tomorrow you’ll get the specifics of the team, the gold belt, their property–and of course the name and ticker of The Next Big Discovery.

Be ready.
 

Keith Schaefer
Publisher, Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin

These are dark days for the ethanol industry.  It’s very much a different story from 2013-2015, when Green Plains (GPRE-NASD) was a great investment, and one of my biggest wins.  It went from $4-$48 in two years, and I caught the run from $9-$30.

Ethanol is gasoline made from corn, and it gets very profitable when corn prices (input costs) go down and oil prices (output prices) go up–which is exactly what happened in 2013-2014.

But I stopped following it a couple years ago, as its ethanol margins were always the worst of the major ethanol producers–Valero, Archer Daniels, Pacific Ethanol.  And its accounting made it too opaque to model.

Back in the good ole’ days ethanol margins hit $2 per gallon (February 2014)!  But now ethanol margins are horrible.  Inventories high.  Regulations have been a headwind.

On January 28^th margins hit their lowest point in history.

They’ve recovered some since then but are still negative.

Yet negative margins don’t seem to be resolving the glut.  Inventories remain near all-time highs.

This environment has Green Plains, the fourth largest ethanol producer in the United States, launching a fire sale.

Green Plains sold 3 ethanol plants in November last year for $319 million.  These plants (Lakota, IA, Bluffton, IN and Riga, MI) were three of their most efficient assets.

That’s been the theme – sell what you can.  Not a surprise for a company under distress.  Analysts at Craig Hallum estimated the three ethanol plants would have generated $15-$20m million of EBITDA in 2019.

Also in November, Green Plains sold their Fleischmann’s Vinegar business to Kerry Group for $353 million.

Fleischmann’s Vinegar was generating around $40 million EBITDA.

The asset sales are raising much needed cash, but they aren’t doing much for the income statement.

Consider the dispositions in this context: Green Plains had only $80 million of EBITDA in all of 2018!

The first quarter continued the trend – weakness.  A net loss of $1.09 per share on negative EBITDA.

More troubling was that the cash outflow from operations was $25 million.

Green Plains tried to stabilize the market in the first quarter, cutting back on production.  Their operating capacity in the first quarter was only 56%.

It has worked in the past.  But not this time.  As the company said:

“while it may have helped a little bit, it wasn’t like the first couple times that we’ve done that… this time we actually saw that we didn’t have an impact on the overall margin structure because of the oversupply situation.”

If the cash flow statement wasn’t bad enough, Green Plains has cash going out the door by way of volume commitments with their 50% MLP Green Plains Partners.

Green Plains Partners generated $11 million of distributable cash flow in the first quarter.  They are consolidated on Green Plains balance sheet.  This means the cash flow numbers for the Green Plains parent are closer to -$30 million of outflows for the quarter.

Finally, things could get worse.

How is that possible?  Green Plains is buying last years corn for its feedstock right now.  But a slow spring with floods in the Midwest are pushing up futures of fall corn.

Corn is trading at $4 in Iowa right now.  September corn is at $4.45.  Another 10% hit to margins in the cards unless something changes.

Add it all together and this has all the makings of a perfect short.

Right?

Probably, but lets take a look at the risks.

The main fly in the ointment is the Trump administration.

In the past the Trump team has made some moves that have hurt ethanol and hurt Green Plains.

Trump’s first EPA head, Scott Pruitt, sent the industry into regulatory turmoil.

Pruitt signed a surge of small-refinery exemption waivers.  The waivers are essentially an exemption on blend requirements – with the waiver the refiner doesn’t have to blend ethanol.  These waivers were issued to both small and large producers, including to some large and profitable oil companies.

That hurt companies like Green Plains, as it effectively reduced ethanol demand.

A second punch came from the trade wars.  Green Plains has estimated that the impact on the trade wars has been a 20-30c a gallon decline in margins.

I don’t know if I buy what they are saying at face value.  Margins were slim in the fall of 2018 (before the trade war really erupted).  Today, oil is lower and corn is higher.  Changes in margins have been more complicated than that.

But no question that the regulatory environment hasn’t been favorable.  However, with the election approaching that’s changing.

Big picture is Trump wants to help farmers.  He’s hurt them with the trade war.  He knows it.  They know it.

An easy bone to throw is to mandate increased ethanol demand.

There are two ways Trump is doing that.

At the end of May the EPA announced changes that would roll back the summertime ban on E15 fuel.  This is a blend of 15 percent ethanol and 85 percent gasoline.  The restriction had previously limited ethanol blending to 8 months of the year.

Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline (although it has less energy content).  Blenders capture more margin when they blend more ethanol.  Those with access to ethanol will blend as much as they can.

This one is a done deal.  It likely isn’t going to have an immediate impact.  But come next summer we should start to see more ethanol blending.

The second and potentially bigger impact could come from a deal with China.
Tariffs on ethanol to China are 70% right now.  Ethanol exports to China have been part of the trade negotiations.  The numbers being bandied about have China buying between 400 million gallons to 800 million gallons a year.

400 million gallons is around 10 million barrels.  That is about ½ the level of current inventories.  800 million gallons would be the entire US inventory.

If those numbers happen, it will mean a boost for ethanol margins.

More important for a prospective short-seller, it likely means a pop in the share price of Green Plains.
So that is the risk.

Apart from a positive trade war resolution though, there is not much to like about Green Plains right now.

IMHO, its very solvency is in question.  It could go to zero.

But even with that risk on the table I’ll be watching the slow train wreck that is Green Plains from the sidelines.  I think I know where its headed but curious if they get saved by the bell.

Keith Schaefer

Publisher, Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin