Rig productivity increases dramatically as the rig count in an area decreases—data from the EIA show productivity increases as much as 50%! It means US oil production will not follow anywhere close to the same trajectory the rig count has (i.e. falling off a cliff), and it also means the...
Dear OGIB subscriber, I don’t often write my readers with this level of urgency. But recently I came across a situation so profitable and so pressing… I did 2 things right away. 1. I put $400,000 of my own money on the line in this single investment idea. 2. I dropped everything at once...
Why are recent natural gas deals in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) getting done at very expensive metrics, when the consensus for Canadian gas prices in the near to medium term is lower—potentially a lot lower? The obvious answer is LNG—Liquid Natural Gas exports; even though the first exports...
By Bill Powers Natural gas production in Texas in Q1 2015 declined 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), results from the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) show.   That’s a 5.5% decline on the 22 bcf/d Texas produces—a full one third of all natural gas production in the USA. Conservatively, I expect...
The Opaque World of Crude Oil The latest EIA stats painted a seemingly bullish picture for North American crude oil right now.  Crude prices have rebounded from the March re-test of the low, US production seems to finally be falling and Cushing storage levels are starting to draw down.  The...
A Blueprint For Small Cap Oil and Gas Investment Success – Part 1 You only make Big Money on mis-understood investments. And now that the oil price has collapsed to the point where there is almost no meaningful cash flow, mis-understood investments are easier to find. That’s because the Market has divided...
Investors can’t say definitively that the price of oil bottomed in the third week of March, but some very recent data  released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that supports the premise that a bottom is in.  More on that in a moment. From a low near $43 per barrel...
Is it time for investors to load up on oil shares--or time to sell?  The answer is--it depends what metric you're looking at.  On a cash flow basis, they're expensive.  But based on Net Asset Valuations (NAV), they're cheap.  How can oil stocks be both expensive and cheap?  I'll...