Argentina On the Verge of Shale Gas Boom

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A shale gas and shale oil boom is anticipated in Argentina, where recent finds have set expectations high in the South American country.

Former state monopoly YPF believes that a recent discovery could touch off a proverbial powder keg of development in Argentina, reports United Press International.

Tomas Garcia Blanco, the executive director for upstream activity at YPF, told the Financial Times that the discovery – in the Loma La Lata area of the country – could contain as much as 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Last month, Repsol, which owns a majority of YPF, reportedly discovered 927 barrels of oil equivalent in the region, which is known as Vaca Muerta. Garcia Blanco said the company hoped to know the true extent of the discovery in January or even as soon as the end of the year.

Many people are enthusiastic about the potential for a major shale gas and oil discovery in the country due to the large amount of resources that are believed to exist there.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the world. That figure puts the South American nation behind only China and the U.S. in that regard.

Even with the 1 billion figure attached to the play, Garcia Blanco said that estimates of the Vaca Muerta were "conservative." In addition, he compared the play to the Eagle Ford shale in Texas, which has helped lead America's shale gas boom.

"It does seem to have some similarities to some very productive U.S. plays," Robert Clarke, an analyst who focuses on unconventional gas at Wood Mackenzie, told the Times.

If Vaca Muerta is in fact similar to the Eagle Ford, there could be a tremendous amount of shale gas production in Argentina. The Texas formation produced more than 8 million barrels of oil through the first eight months of 2011, which is already more than double the production for the entirety of 2010, according to the Railroad Commission of Texas. In addition, the play produced 139 billion cubic feet of shale gas in 2011 through August.

If the play is developed it could mean big things for Argentina, which produced 1.16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2009. That figure represented a 35 percent decline from 2008, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

West Virginia Marcellus Bill Pro-Industry: Environmentalists

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Recently approved new rules governing activity in West Virginia’s portion of the Marcellus shale have become too pro-industry, environmental groups charge.

During a special session, the Senate Judiciary and Finance committees endorsed a version of the bill that had been reworked by Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, which has been widely panned by environmental groups and surface owner organizations alike.

Gary Zuckett, the director of the West Virginia Citizen Action Group, was outspoken in his criticism of the bill.

"What we now have is a Christmas tree for the drillers – it's an industry bill," he told the Charleston Gazette. "The whole process was hijacked in closed-door meetings after so much work was done all summer."

Additionally, the environmental groups are upset that the earlier version of the bill, which had been worked on for years with a special joint-chamber committee, was scrapped for what they feel is more industry-focused legislation.

"The select committee's bill was already a compromise," Jim Sconyers with the West Virginia Sierra Club told the news source. "Now it is unacceptable. Any bill we would support must contain at least the protections found in the compromise bill."

Specifically, Tomblin's version of the bill removed authority from the Office of Air Quality by not allowing it to regulate air quality at the sites. The governor's version also allows operators to drill without notifying adjacent property owners.

Tomblin's reworking also changed some required distances. Under the new version, wells need to be drilled 100 feet from wetlands but the prior version set the distance at 200 feet. In addition, the new bill will allow drilling activity to take place within 625 feet of homes, a distant that some opponents say is insufficient, reports The Associated Press.

The updated version kept the original's increase in permit fees. According to the AP, drillers now only pay $400 but will have to pay $10,000 for the initial well and $5,000 for each subsequent well under the new rules.

This is part of the reason those on the industry side are not thrilled by the new version, although many of them have endorsed the updated version of the legislation.

"Everything about this bill either adds expense or time or delays to our operations and our organizations, which we currently feel are adequately regulated," Mike McCown, vice president of Gastar Exploration (GST:NYSE Amex), told the AP. "But it's important to have some clarity moving forward."

EPA Pollutes Fracking Argument with Flawed Science, Gas Industry Says

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently announced that hydraulic fracturing – or fracking – may be the cause of groundwater pollution in a Wyoming community. However, upon closer examination it appears that the federal agency's findings may be flawed, say investment and industry groups.

In its draft analysis of data from its investigation into drinking water in Pavillion, Wyoming, the EPA found compounds associated with fracking in ground water, according to a release from the federal agency.

Residents in the area have reportedly said that their drinking water smells of chemicals and the EPA has been investigating such claims – along with Wyoming officials and the owner of the oil and gas field, Encana Corp. (ECA:NYSE) – for the past three years.

However, a number of sources have pointed out that there are potentially serious flaws in the EPA's findings.

One issue is that the investigation did not establish a connection between deep and shallow water contamination in the aquifer. According to Global Hunter Securities, this may show that that the fracking fluid was unable to meaningfully migrate upward through strata. This is even more significant because as the EPA notes there was no serious stratigraphic barrier to prevent such a migration at the site in question.

Another serious issue with the investigation is that the water in question is produced from a reservoir that also naturally produces significant levels of hydrocarbons, so the presence of such substances is not surprising. Global Hunter also points out that it shouldn't be surprising that synthetic substances were found in the reservoir as it has been developed commercially for nearly 50 years.

The whole issue begs the question—where was the EPA for the last 50 years as conventional oil and gas was being produced from a drinking aquifer?

Additionally, a Credit Suisse note mentions that the alleged migration distance (less than 150 meters) is far less than in most of the other wells in the country. Almost all, if not all, fracking is done between half a mile and two miles underground, well below any groundwater reservoir.

For its part, the EPA did say in the release that these findings were only for the Pavillion area. Specifically, the fracking was taking place close to wells used for drinking water and below the level of the water aquifer. Fracking methods in other regions of the country vary due to different geological conditions.

Given the scientific flaws in the report, it’s unclear if this eye-grabbing report will have any actual effect on fracking operations throughout the country.

How To Trade Natural Gas by Going Short

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In Part 2 of his story on the Natural Gas Bull ETF, Guest Writer Cory Mitchell tells you historically WHEN the best time is to make this trade to maximize profits… and it’s coming up very soon.  He also explains what happens to this short trade if natural gas prices start to rise (Hint: It’s better than you think.)

– Keith


By Cory Mitchell, CMT

In Part 1, I explained The Best Trade in Natural Gas—shorting the Horizons BetaPro Natural Gas Bull ETF, symbol HNU on the Toronto Stock Exchange.  With very little volatility, investors who shorted this ETF in June 2008 would be up more than 99% now—in fact, there is almost no time in the past four years when this trade would not have been profitable.

Most retail investors look to ride a major trend to profits, and the downward slope of natural gas prices for the last three years have provided very steady capital gains.

So when is the BEST time to make this trade—shorting the HNU:TSX?

Charts suggest that the Monday of the last week of January has been a historically good entry point for short positions.  Here is what happened the last three years:

  1. Monday, January 25, 2010—if you shorted and held you would have never seen a loss and would have made 88.95% between that date and December 2, 2011(closing prices).
  2. Monday, January 24, 2011 was a steep drop day.  But if you sold on that day, the price never moved above it again, representing a 63.56% gain as of the close on December 2.
  3. In 2009 the ETF did manage to move a bit higher after the last week in January, but by mid-February—only three weeks later– the ETF was dropping once again, never to reach those levels again.

Therefore, the first Monday of the last week in January has been a solid entry point, yet there is possibility that it could fluctuate and move higher from there in the short-term.  History indicates this is likely a high probability short position entry point, although history does not always repeat itself so retail investors must be vigilant on managing their own risk and not taking positions which they cannot afford to lose on.

What Happens if Natural Gas Goes Up in Price?

Natural Gas has been sliding this year, as mentioned, down 22.77% YTD as of Friday, December 2.  Therefore, if natural gas begins to rise over the long-term will HNU rise?

Given the structure of the ETF, this is extremely unlikely over the long-term.  Even if natural gas rises the ETF will continually be paying a higher price for new contracts than it receives for expiring ones.  The spot price at expiry will theoretically need to be higher than the futures price paid every time a contract is rolled in order for this ETF to appreciate long-term—a highly unlikely scenario.

The potential exists for a “backwardation” market condition to develop.  This would aid HNU in recovering some of the excessive losses it has seen since its inception.

Backwardation occurs when contracts in the future are priced lower than the current spot rate and then rise as they near expiry to converge with the higher spot price.  This would occur for example if short-term demand is higher than anticipated demand in the future. The current price is driven up, but contracts for future months are priced lower because demand is expected to decline by then.

This allows the leveraged long position ETF to profit when the spot price increases, remains flat or even if the spot price declines slightly–because the ETF will purchase contracts which expire in the future for cheaper than the current spot price (how much they sell expiring contracts for).


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As the contracts near expiry, its value will increase to the current price, at which point the position is rolled into another contract which is priced lower than the current spot price.  This allows the fund to purchase more of the new contract which is likely to provide a positive return even if the spot rate remains flat.

Backwardation rarely occurs in natural gas, which is called a “non-perishable commodity,” since there are storage and insurance costs for holding the commodity for delivery in the future.  This is why futures contract far away from expiration are priced higher than the spot price—it compensates the seller and holder of the commodity for costs incurred until delivery.

Sustained backwardation is really the only way HNU can recoup losses, and this scenario is highly unlikely. Therefore, it is very implausible HNU will be able to sustain an uptrend even if natural gas were to begin a long-term uptrend.

The daily objective of the fund means it is more suited to day traders, and long-term short sellers than bullish investors.  The odds are stacked against the bulls due to the structure of the fund and contango.  While bullish investors may be able to exit at a better price on daily gyrations, it is probable that this ETF will continue to decline, as it has done since July of 2008.  That provides an opportunity for those open to short selling.

We are approaching a time which was a great entry point in 2009, 2010 and 2011.

2008 saw a sharp rise in natural gas between January and the end of the July. This was the only time the ETF rallied—right after its inception.  It responded well to the bull market then mainly because during the first several months, contracts did not have to be rolled.  Once the contracts began to roll, the losses mounted as natural gas began its long-term decline.  If such a sharp rise occurred again, HNU.TO would likely rise, but the effects would be more muted than in 2008 because of the contango effect and the inefficiencies mentioned in Part 1.

Conclusion

HNU is a product long-term investors should avoid buying as the ETF does not accurately reflect the movement of natural gas beyond a single day.  The likelihood of a long-term rise in the ETF which will allow investors to recoup losses, even if natural gas begins a bull run, is slim.  The structure of the ETF is not favourable to long term appreciation.  In order for long-term appreciation to occur, conditions would need to be perfect, and need to run counter to the norms of the non-perishable commodity.

This makes the ETF a prime candidate for taking a short position as the inefficiencies of the fund create profits for further downside.  Couple this with a weak natural gas price and late January of 2012 begins to look like a good short-entry point.

– Cory Mitchell, CMT

EDITOR’S NOTE:  Several readers emailed in after reading Part 1 asking, why short the HNU ETF — why not buy the HND:TSX, the natural gas down ETF?  The answer is simple. In terms of being able to capitalize on a trend it has been less reliable.

Since March of 2009 HND has continually pulled back to former price lows (support).  HNU has not done this; very rarely on a long-term basis has HNU moved higher to test old resistance levels.  This makes HNU far more consistent in making new lows (good for shorts), than HND is at making new highs (tricky for longs).  For trend followers and investors who don’t want to have to babysit a position, the short in HNU is likely a better option.  HND provides great profit potential as well, but entries and exits are harder to pick as the movement is far less uniform than in HNU over the long-run.

Disclaimers: Cory Mitchell nor Keith Schaefer currently hold a position, short or long, in TSX:HNU. Neither Cory Mitchell nor Keith Schaefer are investments advisors; no part of this article should be considered personalized investment advice. As always, investors should consult with a licensed financial planner for help on their particular investment situations.

Train Kept A-Rollin’: Companies Invest in Bakken Infrastructure

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So much thought and energy is put into getting oil and gas out of the ground, that it can be easy for a lay person to forget about the infrastructure needed to transport these resources to places where they can be sold.

However, those in the industry know the importance of infrastructure when it comes to their operations, and a number of major companies recently said they would be working in such a capacity in the Bakken formation, both on the U.S. and Candian sides.

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP:NYSE) recently announced that it would be investing $145 million in its North Dakota crude oil system.

The company – which focuses on transporting oil and gas in the U.S. – said that the money would go to increasing the capacity of its Berthold terminal by 80,000 barrels per day; it started handling 10,000 barrels per day in July. In addition, there will be a new rail car loading facility. It is hoped that the additional capacity will be in-service by early 2013, reports Dow Jones Newswires.

President Mark Maki said that the expansion wouldn’t just help Enbridge, but other companies in the area as well.

“Importantly, it allows producers and shippers the ability to continue to grow their business while Enbridge develops the next phase of pipeline expansions on the Enbridge North Dakota System,” he said.

Enbridge isn’t the only company looking to ship oil and gas out of the Bakken, as Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. said that it would spend C$90 million to increase its shipments out of both North Dakota’s and Saskatchewan’s sections of the formation.

The company anticipates that shipments out of the formation will reach 70,000 cars per year.

Oil Exec: Well Costs To Fall in Bakken

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An executive at an oil and gas company recently said that he expects the cost of drilling in North Dakota's Bakken formation to fall in the coming years.

James Volker, the chief executive officer of Whiting Petroleum (WLL:NYSE) says that he believes new drilling technology, better well designs and new sand mines will drive the costs down, reports Reuters.

Specifically, Volker said that the cost of a new well will drop to about $7.3 million from its current perch of $8.3 million. The executive – who was speaking at a Wells Fargo conference – said that the cost would eventually plummet further to $6.5 million.

According to Reuters, Volker said that his company spent $10 million on each new well when it began to operate in the Sanish Fields of the Bakken.

In addition to the costs of wells in the play going down, they are being completed even faster. According to analysts, it takes about 15 days to complete a well in the Bakken, a 50 percent reduction in time compared to 12 months prior, reports Reuters.

These developments – both a reduction in cost and an increase in speed – will help companies tap into one of the fastest growing plays in not only the country, but the world.

September saw the Bakken produce 485 million cubic feet of shale gas per day, which is up from the 150 million cubic feet per day figure from 2005, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Well costs in America's other shale gas darling – the Eagle Ford in Texas – have gone in the opposite direction.

Michael Hall, a senior analyst at Robert W. Baird, told the Hart Energy's Developing Unconventional Gas Conference & Exhibition in October that the costs of completing a well in the play have nearly doubled, going from $5.3 million to $10 million over the past year or so, reports the Houston Chronicle. 

A Lucrative Contrarian Way To Trade the Natural Gas ‘Bull’ ETF

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by Cory Mitchell, CMT

The Horizon BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull+ ETF (TSX: HNU) has been one of, if not THE most profitable trades in natural gas for the last four years, yet my sense is retail investors have missed it completely.

Why? The reason is simple—you have to short it. Most retail investors don’t short, and fewer think about shorting an “Up” ETF.  I admit, it’s not a trade for novices.  But it’s available to everybody.

I’m going to outline just how lucrative this trade has been over the last four years, and how you can capitalize on this downtrend in natural gas. I’ll explain the two  “built-in” factors to this ETF that add to the profits of a short position—and lose you money if you’re long.  I’ll even tell you when, historically, the best time of the year is to initiate this trade—and it’s coming up VERY SOON.

“Shorting” means selling first and buying back later, as opposed to the more common convention of buying first and then selling.  The short seller profits by selling at a higher price and buying later at a lower price.  The difference in the price between where he sold and where he bought is the realized profit of the trade.  This is how money is made on downtrends like we are witnessing in HNU.

(If you just learned what “shorting” is by reading this, do not attempt this trade;-))

HNU started its steep downtrend in July, 2008 just a few months  after its January inception.  The ETF is down 99.86% from that high, far underperforming the underlying commodity it is supposed represent.  Now, this is very bad news if you’re long.

But if you’re short, this underperformance is a key; if you’re short it’s kind of like being The House in Vegas.

The ETF actually represents one of the most reliable trades in the sector—and it is not too late to get in.  And as I mentioned,  one of the ideal annual entry points over the last three years is coming up very soon!  If retail investors want to ride a trend this is it. The trend in natural gas is currently down, and even if the trend reverses, there are two built-in features within the fund are likely to stifle long-term upward price appreciation: “contango” and re-balancing.  I will explain both of these.

The Structure of Underperformance

HNU is a leverage ETF which attempts to “seek daily investment results equal to 200% the daily performance of the NYMEX Natural Gas futures contract for the next delivery month” according to Horizons website.

This is accomplished through purchasing natural gas futures contracts, and then at specified dates rolling the contracts which are nearing expiry into new futures contracts.  According to Horizons website “This mechanism also allows the investor to maintain an exposure to commodities over time.”

Yet those who have bought, or gone long the ETF since the start of 2011 have lost 64% of their capital, while the underlying commodity has lost 22.77%.  The ETF is leveraged, therefore the theoretical loss HNU should have experienced so far this year is negative 45.54%.  Investors have  lost about 17% more than anticipated this year alone (the fund charges a 1.15% management fee).  Since inception the picture is grimmer—but only if you’re long  It’s actually a beautiful thing if you’re short.

Adjusted for four reverse stock splits, the stock hit a high of $7,710.40 in 2008, and currently trades at $10.48 as of Friday, December 2.  It should be noted that the actual price paid at the high in 2008 was not $7,710.4 (it was $48.19).  This price reflects the equivalent value in retrospect based on the reverse stock splits that have occurred.

If an investor  picked the top and shorted 1000 shares at $48.19 ($48,190 invested) in 2008 the trade is showing a profit of $48,124.68!

Whereas if an investor bought 1000 shares at $48.19 in 2008, the first split would have left him 250 shares (1 for 4), the second split with 50 shares (1 for 5), the third split with 25shares (1 for 2) and the fourth split with 6.25 shares (1 for 4).  The original investment of $48,190 is therefore worth $65.5(6.25 times the current $10.48 share price) reflecting a 99.86% loss in capital (that is why the shorts have nearly doubled their money).  The prices on the chart are adjusted to reflect the reverse stock splits and the appropriate percentage decline of the ETF.

Figure 1. TSX: HNU –  January 16, 2008 to December 2, 2011 Logarithmic Weekly Chart with Reverse Stock Splits

Source: FreeStockCharts and split information from Yahoo Finance.

Horizons does point out that “These ETFs do not seek to meet their investment objectives over any period other than daily.”  This is clearly stated multiple times in the ETF prospectus, indicating the ETF does not track the commodity over the long-term, rather only on a daily basis.

CONTANGO

A major factor in the decline witnessed in HNU over the long-term—and something that stacks the deck in favour of being short–is due to a phenomenon known as “contango.”  Futures contracts, which HNU purchases, are an agreement to buy an asset at a fixed price at a forward or future date.  When the futures price is higher than the spot price, that is known as “contango“.  The natural gas market is usually in contango; futures prices are higher due to storage costs and uncertainty; so a premium is paid for that uncertainty.

But as that more expensive  futures contract approaches its  expiry date—the date the gas must be delivered–it will converge with the spot price—which by definition means it declines in price. Since HNU does not take physical delivery of the commodity it trades, it must continually “roll”, or sell futures contracts which are expiring and buy longer-term contracts—usually the next month.

By continually paying a higher price than the spot price each time the contract is rolled, there is an inevitable long-term systematic erosion of value within the fund, and a continual slide in the value of the ETF.

This is GREAT—if you’re short.  The House Rules are in your favour.  But it’s a profit killer if you’re “long”  though.

As for December 5, January 2012 Natural Gas is trading at $3.465.  February, 2012 Natural Gas is trading $3.492.  Not only does the fund lose money because of the downtrend (sells expiring contracts at a lower price) but it then pays a 2.7 cent (this will fluctuate) premium for the next futures contracts.  Compounded and leveraged each month, the losses become staggering, as shown by the ETFs decline.  Keep in mind the fund is leveraged-essentially doubling the premium and magnifying losses. . . Month after month, all else being equal, this occurs.

The contracts HNU is forced to sell will almost always be lower than the price which is paid for the new contracts they must purchase. This will offset any long-term gains the fund could theoretically make, even if natural gas rises over the long-term. The fund loses if natural gas drops, stays the same or even rises slightly. These regular losses and inefficiencies continually drive down the value of the ETF.  Again, if you’re short, this is adding profits to your wallet.

The second big structural factor in HNU that is in favour of the “shorts” is the issue of leverage and compounding losses.  HNU attempts to reflect 200% of the movement of natural gas on a daily basis.  Assume you invest $100 in the ETF, on the first day natural gas rises 5%.  This means your investment will be worth $110 (you make 10% because of leverage).  But assume the following day natural gas falls by 5%.  Your investment is worth $99 (you lose$11 or 10% of $110).  Many investors think they should just be back at $100, but compounding and leverage create a loss.

If you’re short, you just made $1 in two volatile days.  If you’re long, you just lost $1.

 

How to Make Money

Investors don’t usually think about short-selling but in this case, shorting the ETF has historically been the way to make money over the long term. Shorting selling is taking advantage of both sides of the market—up and down—movements which occur regardless of short-seller involvement.

“Market participants are permitted to sell Units of an ETF short and at any price…” according to the prospectus for the ETF.  Short selling is a legitimate way to trade the ETF and is noted in the fund’s legal documents.

Shorting ETFs is often more efficient than shorting an individual stock or commodity:

  • The ETF is not prone to short-squeezes since the fund is rebalanced every day to reflect the value of its holdings-which seems systematically doomed to continue its decline.  The ETF moves intra-day as the underlying assets move, therefore all traders (long and short) are simply volume, as the price is determined by underlying assets, in this case natural gas contracts and how those contracts are managed.

NOTE: The underlying commodity may be prone to a short-squeeze where buyers push up the price and people with short positions are forced to cover their position (pushing the price even higher) or receive a margin call on their short position. Investors should be aware this can cause sudden, sharp short-term rises in the ETF.

  • HNU can be shorted at any time.  This differs from a regular falling stock as the stock may not be shortable at all, or subject to the uptick rule.  An uptick rule means traders can only initiate short positions when the price is above the last trade price.  This is common on the TSX exchange, but this ETF is excused from the regulations.

In an ETF which has proven very inefficient for buyers over the long-term going short is the logical strategy.  (The industry jargon for buying is called “going long”.) Couple this with an overall downtrend in natural gas—even if natural gas begins an uptrend the rise in the ETF is likely to be muted—the trade sets up very well for investors who are willing to incorporate short selling as one of their tools.

The fund is leveraged which means on a daily basis there can be big percentage moves.  Short-selling blindly is not wise.

PART 2—On Saturday, I tell you historically WHEN is the best time to make this trade to maximize profits—and it’s coming soon.  And I’ll also explain what happens to this short trade if natural gas prices start to rise (Hint—it’s better than you think.)

Disclaimer: Cory Mitchell nor Keith Schaefer currently hold a position, short or long, in TSX:HNU.  This information is not to be construed as investment advice in any fashion. Always consult a licensed financial planner to help determine what investment strategy is best for you.

 

Not a Myth: Solar Power Used for Oil Extraction

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Icarus failed to escape with his father from Crete because he flew too close to the sun. Now, some oil companies are now hoping that getting closer to the sun will bring them success.

Typically the extraction of heavy oil requires a tremendous amount of natural gas to create the steam needed to bring the oil to the surface. Seeking a different means to extract the precious commodity, GlassPoint Solar is using the power of the sun.

GlassPoint's solar enhanced oil recovery (EOR) utilizes large mirrors that are put in a glasshouse and reflect the sun on water-containing pipes. The water in the pipes becomes the steam that is used in the oil extraction.

A switch to this technology could potentially lead to significantly reduced operating costs as GlassPoint Chief Executive Rod MacGregor says that 60 percent of the cost of operating a heavy oil field is for the purchase of natural gas.

"Burning the product you're trying to produce is not that efficient, to say the least," MacGregor told AOL Energy.

GlassPoint isn't the only company out there harnessing Helios' chariot of the sun to get oil from the ground.

BrightSource Energy Inc. has been working in California with Chevron – the second largest oil company in the U.S. – to bring solar power into the oil industry. BrightSource's method is not incredibly different from GlassPoints, with mirrors being used to focus the sun's power on solar tower, where steam is created, reports Bloomberg.

Chevron Technology Ventures President Desmond King said there is a great amount of potential in the technology.

"This technology has the potential to augment gas-powered steam generation and may provide an additional resource in areas of the world where natural gas is expensive or not readily available," he said in a statement.