The Brexit side has won. The British people, the nation (not the politicians) have voted to leave the European Union, and become as Norway and Switzerland are—in Europe but out of the EU.
This is not a binding vote; it’s only a referendum. And it was a very narrow margin—basically 52/48—but that matters not to stock markets around the world for the next few days.
But there could easily be some BIG opportunity for oil investors, both short and long term.
First off, please understand that even though the fundamentals of Britain leaving the EU might not be much, stock markets run on emotion—now more than ever.
Thanks to years of Quantitative Easing, low to no interest rates and essentially free commissions on stock trading—there is an incredible amount of dumb money in the Market that the pros can take advantage of in times of extreme emotion like this.
So the next few days will be VERY volatile. Last night, Brent and WTI prices plummeted down $3/b, or 6%. That means the stocks of producers are down 3-8% today, and this could be a 3 day, short term routing.
Oil bulls are about to have all their theories/theses tested in the next week. If the fundamentals of this oil market are as strong as they think, by Wednesday morning the oil price should stabilize above $44/b.
If oil closes on Friday in North America down less than the $3/b it originally plummeted to right after the vote results are known–(WTI over $47/b, Brent over $47.90) I would suggest that is very bullish for oil.
Despite that, for the junior producers, the risk-off sentiment in the market will reign for awhile, and I expect their charts to fall and have to recalibrate/recycle, even if oil prices hold above $44/b next week. That $44/b is my technical line in the sand for oil.
Fundamentally, Britain leaving the EU would have no impact on world oil demand. But because so much of the oil price is derivative-based; driven by the financial side of the industry, the impacts of this loss will be emotionally huge and therefore large on equities—and ETFs.
What would my long term strategy be for the next few days? Buy more of my #1 Oil Stock, maybe the only junior producer who can double production in the next 3-5 years at $45-$50 oil. You buy quality at cheap prices in these extreme panics. But when should I buy it?
It’s really important to remember that the trading prices and volumes of these stocks mean nothing Friday, and realistically Monday. Margin clerks will be doing their job selling out overlevered accounts who bet wrong.
Trends never end on a Friday; that’s why Tuesday is called TurnAround Tuesday.
So if I think I’m going to buy an ETF for some short term gain out of this Brexit panic—or even Parex for long term gains–I’m realistically NOT buying anything on Friday. I’m looking to late Monday-earlyTuesday (like, within the first hour of tradingTuesday; no later) to buy two ETFs—BNO and XIV, both listed NYSE.
BNO-NYSE tracks the Brent price. It is not a levered ETF. The contango, which should get a lot steeper the lower Brent goes in the next few days—will be a headwind for the ETF share price, but if the oil bulls are right this should be a great 3 day trade sometime Monday.
The XIV is the reverse volatility index; it trades opposite to the VIX index; the Fear Index. As soon as the Market figures out that Brexit is not a big deal (no idea on that timing) the XIV will soar.
On any of these trades I will have a very tight 10% stop loss—because no one has any idea if Brexit will cause a bear market. Analysts can say all they want about fundamentals, but when fear takes over a market it can stay lower for longer, just like oil.
I’m not afraid of a bear market this time—the largest position by far in my portfolio is a defensive, debt-free downstream dividend payer that has a low payout ratio. They have increased dividends TWICE already this year. I have some cash to buy more if it gets down to a 10% yield.
I have some gold stocks in Agnico Eagle and a couple juniors my Subscriber Investment Summit partners have put me into.
And my oldest daughter is dancing in England for the next three years. That tuition fee just got a lot cheaper overnight.
So you see, there is profit in everything that happens. You just have to know where to look.
Profit from Brexit with my #1 Oil Stock–this is one of the rare times you can buy high quality and low prices.
CLICK HERE to get the symbol on this stock!